Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Orlando Magic Under 223.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
Nothing about this game suggests we’ll see a lot of points, and there’s inexplicable steam hitting the over here. In my opinion that only serves to help, as I’m happy to take a better number in a game I think will be very much decided by defense. The previous two meetings between these teams certainly were, and even though they happened early in the season there’s no ignoring they only combined for 195 and 203 points.
The Cavaliers have been getting into some higher-scoring games lately, but this is still the NBA’s best scoring defense. Putting them up against a Magic team that is 26th in scoring should allow them to clamp down defensively. Cleveland is also last in the league in pace, and it’s a game that I think will be much more deliberate than free-flowing. Orlando is a very well-coached team that’s been giving strong efforts all year, and since March 1st have the league’s 3rd-best defense. I think that gives us a slower and more defensive-oriented game that stays under the total.
NBA (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+100; Odds via BetMGM)
Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls (-175): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
It’s really incredible how the Atlanta Hawks are the definition of a .500 team, which goes well beyond their 39-39 record. They’ve scored 9,209 points while allowing 9,210 on the year. They’re 24-24 against the East and 15-15 against the West, and have been within one game of a .500 record for 72 straight days. It’s just very rare for this team to either win or lose consistently, and that matters here with the Hawks having just beat Dallas on Sunday.
After a straight up win like Sunday’s, Atlanta is just 14-24 in their next game with the second-worst ATS margin in the league. I think they drop another here in a spot where Chicago desperately needs a win. The Bulls can swap playoff seeds with Atlanta by winning tonight, and I think they’ve figured things out enough recently to do it. The spread just keeps rising in this game, so I’ll count on Atlanta’s ping-ponging record to prove out once again.
LA Lakers (-370) @ Utah Jazz: 8:00 PM CT on SportsNet RM
I’m tempted to lay it with the Lakers here, but again the spread is on the rise too much for me to be comfortable. But the Lakers have been playing extremely well, and need wins like this for any hope of avoiding the play-in tournament. The three straight double-digit wins on this road trip have been very convincing for LA, and the Lebron-AD duo appears healthy which explains a lot of the line movement.
The Lakers also owe Utah for two blowout losses this season, but those were in early November and a lot has obviously changed with both rosters. The Jazz appear to finally be figuring out during this 1-6 run they’re on that flirting with the playoffs does them no good. While the Laker stars are healthy, Utah’s lineup keeps getting thinner including losing Walker Kessler, so I’d expect AD to dominate this game inside. I’ll take the team that needs this game over the team that would be better off losing it to close this parlay.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings/NO Pelicans 1st Half Under 121.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports NO
This is exactly the situation I look for with the Pelicans in the first half. Because the high-scoring Kings are in town the total is inflated to start with, but books have also made this first-half total more than 50% of the full-game number. That’s a mistake with the Pelicans who are 3rd in first-half points allowed, which usually results in their first half totals being below that 50% threshold.
And despite Sacramento being such a high-scoring team, they’ve struggled to shoot and score on the road. They might be the highest-scoring first half team in the league, but that’s built on home success and I think they struggle against the strong defense of the Pelicans here. Both of the previous meetings this season went under this number, as have 13 of the past 15 games for New Orleans overall. With the Pels also fighting for playoff positioning, I think we see another lower-scoring start in this one.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Boston Red Sox Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NESN
Wake me up when the Red Sox finally fail to hit an over. After 13 runs last night, that makes them 4-0 to the over this season with their games averaging 15.8 runs. Obviously that’s not sustainable forever, but I’m not seeing it end tonight with two very below-average starters taking the mound. Particularly Pirates starter Roansy Contreras, who is both vulnerable to the powerful Boston lineup and does not pitch deep into games, so the bad Pirate pen will see work tonight too.
But Boston starter Nick Pivetta had several stretches last season of being one of the more generous pitchers around, plus his numbers at Fenway are much worse. The Pittsburgh bats broke through last night, and I think they can carry that momentum into this game against the bad Boston pitching staff. Weather conditions at Fenway aren’t favorable to hitters tonight, but that hasn’t mattered yet during the scoring binge we’ve seen there. Bottom line is Red Sox overs are an auto-bet for me until proven otherwise.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves/St Louis Cardinals Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on Bally Sports MW
It’s not just Boston where the scoring is going wild in baseball, as yesterday’s games went 13-1-1 to the over including the matchup between these squads. The new rules are obviously benefitting offense, and these are two offenses that don’t need much help to be elite. I think they tee off here on pitchers that should be very vulnerable.
It’s not great for the Cardinals that they have to turn to Steven Matz here, who was shelled repeatedly at Busch Stadium last season. As a lefty, he’ll be up against a Braves offense that’s one of the best versus left-handed pitching. But Atlanta is sending out a starter tonight in Dylan Dodd who’s making his big league debut, and has to face the excellent Cards lineup that also crushes lefties like him.
It has also warmed up considerably in St Louis, and there is a big wind blowing out to left for tonight’s game. Putting two of the strongest offenses up against bad pitching in those conditions looks like an easy way to keep the overs rolling in.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1189-1027 ATS (+78.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.
Recommended Comments
There are no comments to display.