Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/03

Locks

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) UConn -4 First Half vs San Diego St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:20 PM CT on CBS

The UConn freight train appears headed for an inevitable title tonight, but it’s still difficult for me to lay that big of a number in a championship game. I’m going right back to the first half well with them though, because I think they have some distinct advantages that will help them early.

First and foremost is obviously UConn’s first-half dominance as the country’s top team in average margin. I also think SDSU is in a tough spot here after the emotional rollercoaster of Saturday’s big comeback, which could cause them to come out a little flat tonight. They also very uncharacteristically shot the lights out from deep, and shooting regression could help dig a big early hole.

But it’s mainly about the Huskies here, who dominated another opponent Saturday while their best guard, Jordan Hawkins, dealt with a stomach bug. They’re now 15-0-1 ATS against non-conference foes on the season so they’re crushing both opponents and expectations, and I think it starts early again tonight.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Boston Red Sox Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network

The weakness for Boston this season was always expected to be pitching, particularly from the starters. That’s been made a lot worse to start the year as two members of their rotation begin the season on the injured list, so we get a start from Kutter Crawford today. If the second half of last season – when the Red Sox were giving Crawford starts out of desperation – is any indication, he’s going to continue struggling today.

Pittsburgh can stack up a lot of left-handed bats to take advantage of Crawford’s problems against that side of the plate. Even though the Pirates didn’t produce much in their opening series, they have sneaky power throughout the lineup, which will be aided by a big wind blowing out of Fenway tonight. But hitting was never going to be an issue for Boston, evidenced by them scoring 9 runs in all 3 games over the weekend. They should do most or even all the work of getting over a total that’s fairly high for a reason.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Atlanta Braves/St Louis Cardinals Over 8 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on Bally Sports Midwest

Both of these teams were expected to lean heavily on their offenses this season, and that’s been the case in the first few games. I like that this game is matching those offenses up against back-end starters from both teams. Especially Jake Woodford for the Cardinals, who moved into a starter role this season. If he can’t go deep into this game, then an overworked St Louis bullpen has to take over.

And fading Charlie Morton on the road last season always seemed to be profitable, as the Braves righty posted a 5.72 ERA away from home. That led to his road starts going 9-4-2 over this total, including an 11-run game in his only visit to St Louis. It’s obviously early, but the Cardinals posted the best batting average of any team in their opening series and scored 22 runs. I like the chances of them combining with another stacked lineup for plenty of scoring tonight.

MLB (0.25 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Texas Rangers Over 8 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

Speaking of teams with hot offenses, these clubs went wild to start their respective seasons. The Rangers have the most runs in baseball so far, and finished the weekend second in batting average and third in OPS. Baltimore meanwhile is third, third, and first in those categories, respectively.

But the Oriole pitching staff was just shelled, allowing 27 total runs in Boston, and we now get into the ugly part of their rotation with Kyle Bradish starting. It’s a warm day in Dallas, with a big wind carrying out to left in Globe Life Field, giving a big advantage to these powerful lineups. I expect both to pick up where they left off and get this game over a fairly low total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1186-1026 ATS (+77.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.