Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/02

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on NBATV

This is just a rough spot for a Dallas team that looks like they just want the season over with. The marriage of Kyrie and Luka could not be much rockier, and the team looks headed for an early offseason as a result. Add in that they’re now on a back-to-back with travel after losing in Miami last night. That’s a situational spot where the Mavericks are 3-8-1 ATS with the second-worst average ATS margin.

So it would seem like a good opportunity for Atlanta bounce back, as the Hawks seem to alternate wins and losses, evidenced by their 21-16-1 ATS record after a straight up loss. This is also a good matchup for Atlanta, who can score easily inside against a Dallas defense that sells out to prevent 3-point shooting. The Hawks took the first meeting this season, and while a lot has changed for both teams since, I think they take this one against a tired and deflated Dallas squad.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Mavericks/Hawks 1st Quarter Over 63.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

This is a very tough level of scoring to reach in just a quarter of play, but these teams are well-equipped to make it happen. They did it in the first meeting with 77 points after one quarter, and that was a much different Hawks team, plus Dallas did not have Kyrie Irving yet.

And the Mavs have been lighting it up early in games as one of the higher-scoring first quarter teams, evidenced by 75 and 65 points in the first quarter of their past two games. Atlanta is due for a bounce back offensively in this game, and combined with the Dallas tendencies I think the scoring gets rolling early.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Milwaukee Bucks 1st Quarter Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

It will be interesting to see how Milwaukee rebounds today after getting thrashed by 40 against Boston on Thursday. My gut says they’ll come out strong, and that usually means a lot of early scoring for them. The Bucks are the NBA’s top-scoring team for first quarters at home, and they’ll face a team they should be able to continue that against.

As good as the 76ers can be defensively, they tend to start games a lot faster before clamping down later on. Philly is 5th in the NBA for first-quarter scoring on the road, plus their overall defense away from home has not been great lately. If the Bucks are motivated to light it up early, then these two fully-healthy lineups should pile up the points in the opening quarter.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1186-1026 ATS (+77.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.