Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/01

Locks

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) UConn -3 First Half vs Miami (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:50 PM CT on CBS

I’ve gone against Miami twice in the tournament, and both times they’ve been in trouble at halftime and late in the game, only to pull off miraculous comebacks. With today being April Fool’s Day and all, I’m on high alert for jokes like that, so I’m applying the lesson learned to tonight’s game. The full-game spread is a little uncomfortable to lay with Connecticut, but I like their chances to put Miami in another early hole.

And what better team to back in this situation than UConn, as the Huskies have the country’s best average first-half margin. They’ll have to pick up where they left off offensively in this tournament, but I think they can against a weaker Miami defense. Elite guard play from the Hurricanes is what keeps saving them late in games, but they haven’t seen the kind of size UConn brings on the perimeter or inside. This really looks like non-conference UConn, the team that buried opponents with a 10-0-1 ATS mark before Big East play, and I think they start strong tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) UConn Team Total Over 77.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

I can’t decide if UConn’s defense or offense has been more impressive in the tournament so far. Scoring 81.8 PPG has my attention though, especially since today they’ll face the worst defense they’ve seen all tournament. Miami checks in at 104th in adjusted defensive efficiency, so it’s definitely their weakness. But the Canes have scored incredibly well against some truly elite defenses, so I think they’ll push UConn to have to put up points. That makes this team total a little too low, especially if we see desperation fouling late, or if UConn just runs away like they have all tournament.

Degenerates

NCAA Tournament Florida Atlantic/San Diego St 1st Half Under 60 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:10 PM CT on CBS

It’s tough to get a read on either of these teams given the simple fact that they’re both shockingly in the Final Four. But I have to trust the metrics profiles and matchups here that tell me we’re in for an ugly start. I think the biggest key for me is pace, as both teams love to play slow on offense and force long possessions on defense. San Diego State is 345th and Florida Atlantic is 280th in average defensive possession length, a product of their drop defensive styles.

While FAU likes to play in transition where they fire away from deep, they’re up against the country’s 7th-best three point defense that has stifled elite shooting teams all tournament long. Leaning on that defense has been the key to SDSU’s wins, and I don’t see them finding any offense here. The Aztecs are too reliant on interior scoring, and that’s where the Owls are best defensively, ranked 11th in two-point percentage allowed. There will be a feeling out process early in this game, and a cavernous venue at NRG Stadium with strange sightlines. I think that all adds up to a bland and low-scoring start to the Final Four.

Tiny Nick is 1185-1025 ATS (+76.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.