Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/30

Locks

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) UConn Team Total Over 82.5 (110; Odds via Caesars): 5:09 PM CT on TBS

Dan Hurley wants to run teams out and win by massive margins, he’s not being shy about it whatsoever. His offensive sets and plays are some of the best in the game right now, and should torch a vulnerable defense today. They might have a tougher time of running Illinois out since the Illini are able to score so proficiently, but that in turn probably helps push up the scoring for the Huskies.

We just saw UConn put up 82 points on a San Diego State team that’s top-10 defensively, so an Illini squad that really struggles on that end of the court should be no trouble. Illinois doesn’t get the luxury of an Iowa State team prone to extended droughts here, this is the country’s most efficient offense and if Illinois dials up the tempo, UConn will pile up the points.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Illinois/UConn First Half Over 73.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

UConn has been scoring much more in the first half than the second in the tournament so far, and should come out looking to step on Illinois right away. But I also trust Brad Underwood and the Illini to find ways to score in the first half before UConn can adjust defensively. These teams are 11th and 12th nationally for first half scoring, so look for an up-tempo and high-scoring start tonight.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Clemson +3.5 vs Alabama (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:49 PM CT on TBS

At this point in the tournament I like to look at which team had the more impressive road to get here. In this case that’s definitely Clemson, who essentially had three wire-to-wire victories over very solid competition. Alabama by comparison won a game where they allowed 96 points, pulled out a win in one of the stranger games I’ve seen against Grand Canyon, and then benefited from North Carolina short-circuiting in late-game execution.

So while I’m not entirely sure how they’re doing it, Clemson has proven themselves far more than the Tide have. The Tigers also already proved it this year against Alabama, winning in Tuscaloosa early in the season when Alabama was playing its best basketball. They have the ability defensively to keep Alabama out of their preferred style, just like they did to Arizona on Thursday night, plus the ability to score on a weak defense. This has the feel of a one-possession game, so in that situation I want to be holding more than a possession’s worth of points.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Clemson/Alabama First Half Under 78.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

With a Final Four berth on the line, I expect some nerves out of the gates that might slow things down and/or cause some missed shots. Clemson has managed to slow things down and keep other elite offenses quiet in their three games so far, with just 66.7 average points before halftime.

It’s been different for Alabama thanks to their style, but Clemson showed in the first meeting that they can keep the Tide under control. That game only saw 65 points at halftime, so if the Tigers can keep dictating style we’ll see a lower-scoring start here.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Clemson First to Score 10 Points (+100; Odds via DraftKings)

The Tigers have been getting out to red-hot starts in their three tournament games, winning the race to 10 points each time. They’ve been able to hold the opponent down out of the gates as well, which is easier said than done against Alabama’s pace and shooters. But a couple misses from deep for the Tide and I think Clemson is the first to post double digits on the scoreboard.

MLB (0.75 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/LA Dodgers Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Midwest

The Dodgers might get over this total on their own, that’s how bad Lance Lynn is. The veteran righty was signed by St Louis because they were basically out of options, and he should get lit up by the team he finished last season with. Lynn has really struggled in recent seasons with left-handed hitters, and he’ll see several elite ones in the LA lineup. But until Yoshinobu Yamamoto proves that he can pitch against major league hitting, the prized Dodgers signing is a candidate to give up plenty of runs himself. With two starters who are questionable at best, up against very potent offenses, that makes this total far too low.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2177-1965 ATS (+100.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.