Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/24

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento Kings -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

With Deandre Ayton still out for this weekend, I’m going to continue fading the Suns at relatively cheap prices. I think that’s what we have tonight, especially with a continually surprising Kings team in need of a bounce back game. They should be able to get that here against a Phoenix lineup that has become a laughingstock. Without Kevin Durant and now Ayton, the Suns are just too thin across the board.

The collection of backups that have had to carry the load are really struggling defensively, allowing 123.0 PPG on the road since KD was injured. Going up against the league’s most efficient offense is going to be trouble, just as it was when they fell at home to Sacramento two weeks ago. While it’s a 7.5 point swing in the line between that game and tonight, I think it’s valid for a Phoenix team that appears to be playing out the string until they get healthy.

NBA (0.25 Unit) OKC Thunder/LA Lakers Over 232 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on SportsNet LA

After sweating out the under down to the final seconds in last night’s Thunder game, I need to turn around and hit the over with them tonight. Putting OKC on a back-to-back here should create another high-scoring game between them and the Lakers. If LA is smart they’ll push the pace against the tired Thunder, which would be normal for them as the team that plays at the league’s second-fastest tempo.

That makes this a battle of two top-5 pace teams, as well as top-8 in overall scoring. They’ve proven that results in high-scoring games, combining for 263 and 240 points in their meetings this season. The lower-scoring of the two got there even with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missing the game. But with AD and SGA expected to play tonight, I see another fast-paced and high-scoring result.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Miami +7.5 vs Houston (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:15 PM CT on CBS

I think there’s a lot of value in this number for Miami, as it’s more than two full possessions for a team that just continues to impress. The Hurricanes are really unique in that they have 4 players on the floor at all times who can create their own shot or one for a teammate. That’s something Houston has not seen all season in their weak schedule that’s bound to doom them in this tournament eventually.

The Cougars have also struggled this season with teams that get to the free throw line on offense, and hold you to one shot on defense. That’s a perfect description of how the Hurricanes have won their first two games, and it should help keep them in this one. Houston was really impressive in the second half against Auburn, but Miami has much more consistent shooting to challenge the Cougar defense. With so many games in this tournament coming down to the wire, I want a bunch of points in my back pocket so I’m backing the dog here.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Norchad Omier Over 9.5 Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

I guess Omier’s ankle is fine, because he’s been a monster with 14 and 17 rebounds the past two games, including 8 offensive boards against Indiana. If he can put up those kind of numbers against Trayce Jackson-Davis, he can do it against anyone. Houston is an excellent rebounding team so this number is held down a little, but they’re quietly just 151st in defensive rebound percentage so Omier should rack up more offensive boards to pad his total tonight.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Xavier/Texas Over 149 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:45 PM CT on CBS

After a wild first weekend of the tournament highlighted by unders, I’m looking to fade the public narrative there and take advantage of some deflated totals. This is a pretty low number for a Xavier game, with the Musketeers still 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Plus they’ve been pushing tempo in the tournament, with 72 and 77 possessions in their games last week.

That’s fine with Texas who is one of the best transition offenses in the country, and should lead to lots of easy buckets for both teams. The Longhorns will live in the midrange offensively tonight though, which is where they’re most comfortable. That should result in plenty of scoring against a Xavier defense that’s 288th in defending midrange jumpers. Pace, high efficiency, and the potential for late-game fouling should send this one over the total.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Texas -4 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

It’s interesting that this game is at T-Mobile center in Kansas City, where Texas just won the Big12 tournament. That makes them more familiar with the arena, which might be important considering all the scoring issues we saw last week. But eventually the defensive issues for Xavier that should fuel the over will lead to Texas pulling away, and I’ll take the best team from the Big12 over a Big East squad any day.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1166-1011 ATS (+75.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.