Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/24

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/LA Clippers Under 215 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SC

The 76ers can and do grind every game into a disgusting slog, so there’s good reason this total is so low despite LA’s excellent offense. Philly just held the other LA team to 101 points on Friday night, and the Lakers might actually be the better offense in LA right now. The Sixers are currently on a 15-5 under run in their past 20 games despite seeing plenty of totals at or below this number. With the Clippers banged up and one of the better home under teams at 19-13-1, this sleepy mid-Sunday game doesn’t look like it will feature much scoring.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) James Madison +7.5 vs Duke (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:15 PM CT on CBS

James Madison had no trouble whatsoever against Wisconsin on Friday night, and while it probably won’t be that easy again, I do like them to keep this close. This Duke team is one that the analytics just absolutely love, but I really haven’t seen it on the court. Similar to another metrics darling in Auburn, I think the Blue Devils are vulnerable to a team that will put an all-out effort on the court.

JMU is certainly hungry and scrappy, with elite three-point defense to neutralize Duke’s shooting prowess. I’m also not a fan of Duke’s backcourt, and that is a big determining factor in games like this. If JMU can keep Kyle Filipowski from taking over, they’ll be in this game to the end. I’m expecting a one-possession game that could easily see JMU pull it out, so I’ll take what looks like far too many points.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Grand Canyon Team Total Over 81.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on TBS

I will be glued to the TV for this game because I’m all in on Grand Canyon. This team is fantastic, and the sooner you realize they’re a basketball mercenary program instead of a mid-major, the more it makes sense. I think this is an excellent draw for them against a team that plays no defense, with Alabama boasting the worst defensive efficiency mark of teams left in the dance.

The Tide just gave up 96 to Charleston in a track meet, and GCU won’t be afraid to run with them either. The Lopes will also really pad their points at the free throw line today, as they’re 3rd nationally in free throws made per game and Alabama is 341st in fouls committed per game. This is not a serious defense for Alabama in any respect, so look for GCU to put up plenty of points here.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Grand Canyon +6 vs Alabama (-110; Odds via Caesars)

This is another game that I can see coming down to the final possession, so I’ll be taking the points here. It just wouldn’t make any sense to lay multiple possessions with Alabama given their defensive woes. Plus, GCU’s length and athleticism will make things tough on a Tide team built on finesse. GCU is elite defensively inside the arc, so if they can take away the dunks part of Alabama’s dunks-and-three’s philosophy, a few misses from outside will keep the Lopes in this all game.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Grand Canyon Moneyline (+195; Odds via Caesars)

Yep, like I said, all in on GCU. I’ve felt like Alabama is a paper tiger all season, and if they can’t defend this excellent Lopes offense, it will be tough to advance. If the fouls and free throws angle plays out like it appears, then Bama will really be up against it tonight. All the favorites won straight up yesterday, which is not sustainable, and this is the dog I like best today.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) UConn -8 First Half vs Northwestern (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on truTV

Northwestern really shouldn’t be here after a luck-filled game that FAU handed them on a platter, and I think UConn puts them out of their misery right away. The Wildcats are not big enough or quick enough on the perimeter to handled UConn’s elite guards, and they’re too shorthanded down low to handle Donovan Clingan. The massive talent discrepancy should play out from the start, Danny Hurley is demanding absolute perfection from his team, and that team is second nationally in average first half margin. Enough said.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Texas A&M +9.5 vs Houston (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:40 PM CT on TNT

If there’s a team that can give Houston fits schematically and take away their best strengths, it’s the Aggies. Let’s not forget that these teams faced off in the non-conference, on a neutral floor back in December, and it was only a 4-point Houston win. The Cougars had JoJo Tugler and Terrance Arceneaux for that game as well, so their lack of depth is going to be an issue today.

So is Texas A&M’s ability to neutralize Houston’s rebounding, which the Cougars usually use to dominate their opponents. But the Aggies are the best offensive rebounding team in the country, and their offense has been red hot as a result of finally figuring out how to convert those extra looks. Houston’s pace, lack of true scoring ability, and offensive droughts are eventually going to catch up with them. I think it could be here against a team getting hot at the right time who already knows how to compete with them.

NCAA/NIT Tournament (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+130; Odds via Caesars)

Baylor -195 vs Clemson: 5:10 PM CT on TNT

Clemson really benefited from facing a Mountain Worst team in the first round and that conference’s inevitable self-destruction. Baylor is a much different animal, and the Big12 is much stiffer competition for a team as inconsistent as Clemson has been.

New Mexico’s problem against Clemson on Friday was the fact that they refuse to shoot three’s and live in the mid-range, which plays right into Clemson’s strength. Baylor will not do that, as the country’s 3rd-best three-point shooting team should light up a Tigers team that gives up a ton of production beyond the arc. With elite interior athletes to slow down PJ Hall, the Bears are in a great position today to advance to the Sweet 16.

UNLV -195 vs Boston College: 8:30 PM CT on ESPNU

Don’t forget about the excellent NIT slate today (more on that below) that features this red-hot UNLV team who looks to be on a mission. The Rebels got a very impressive road win over Princeton who never loses at home, and now return home to host an overvalued Boston College squad.

The Eagles are in this position partly because so many teams refused NIT invites, and partly because their three-point shooting went wild in the ACC tournament. That won’t continue against a UNLV team with elite athleticism on the perimeter that really limits three-point production. The Rebels are an up-and-coming program with a ton of talent, and a great coach who appears to have them motivated in the NIT, so look for them to get this victory.

NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) VCU @ South Florida -2.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU

Speaking of teams that appear to be on a mission after rounding into form, South Florida is playing elite level basketball right now. Especially at home, where they’re 15-4-1 ATS this season. VCU is a tough team, but they’re also very inconsistent offensively thanks to high-volume three-point shooting. That’s going to make things tough on the road in a raucous environment against a team that’s 38th nationally in three-point defense. I think that’s enough for South Florida to continue this impressive growth and advance in the NIT.

NIT Tournament (0.75 Unit) Iowa/Utah Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Iowa does not care about defense. Iowa on the road really struggles defensively. Iowa, on the road, in the NIT where defense is usually optional, is a recipe for a ton of points. That’s why metrics sites have this projected in the 170’s tonight, and I think we get there.

Iowa’s biggest weakness defensively this season has been stopping the three-ball, and Utah is an elite three-point shooting team, 29th in percentage at home. Both of these teams want to get up and down the floor, and that should tire out the Hawkeyes who will not be used to the elevation. I expect plenty of three’s and transition layups to get this game over the high total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2167-1945 ATS (+107.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.