Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/23

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Suns/San Antonio Spurs Over 230 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

These teams haven’t played since early November, but the meetings back then were very high-scoring and I expect the same tonight. While the Spurs have looked much better on defense recently, they haven’t faced many teams with the firepower that Phoenix brings. Their ability to shoot and score from everywhere on the court is going to test the defense that is still 22nd in rating.

I also expect the Suns to push tempo tonight against a tired Spurs team that played last night. But with Josh Okogie and Jusuf Nurkic potentially out tonight, that completely changes the defensive ability of the Suns and the probable style of this game. I think it adds up to points so I’m taking the over here.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Iowa State -6.5 vs Washington State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:10 PM CT on TNT

I really don’t have a choice here, I think they revoke my diploma or something if I don’t back ISU tonight. I’ve been surprised to see this number hold steady since I think the Cyclones can pull away comfortably in this one. They probably won’t be as nuclear as they were on Thursday, but their shooting is still on a significant upward trajectory.

Washington State’s defense and overall size will be a test for them, but ultimately I think it’s the ISU defense that determines this game. Wazzu only wants to try to score inside as they have one of the highest two-point rates in the country, and that’s not going to work against one of the country’s best interior defenses. Another defensive gem from arguably the nation’s best defensive team should send them to the Sweet 16 by a comfortable margin.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) NC State -6.5 vs Oakland (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on TBS

These teams are both really great stories, but one has to turn into a pumpkin tonight. I think it’s Oakland who has to revert back to the mean after getting so fortunate on Thursday night. NC State is much better-coached and more experienced than Kentucky, and they’ll show it here. Most importantly they have the defensive stopper in Casey Morsell to keep Jack Gohlke from going insane again.

The Wolfpack just refuses to tire out and now they can smell the Sweet 16 with this favorable situation. There have been 6 previous instances when an 11-seed lucks out and faces a 14-seed, and the 11-seed is 6-0 both straight up and ATS, winning by at least 13 points each time. Lay it with NC State to continue their hot run.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) NC State/Oakland Over 146.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

This total is right on the metrics projections that so often determine numbers in short turnaround games, but there’s a key that I think sends it over. The Oakland coach has made it clear he wants to play up-tempo here with the hope that NC State does eventually tire out. That doesn’t seem likely to happen, but trying to do it should create the conditions for an over. The Grizzlies are not a fast-paced team, so that change in style is not being factored into the total. We know both teams can really shoot it, so creating more possessions should ramp up the points here.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Texas +6.5 vs Tennessee (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBS

Ok Rick Barnes, nice job running out a bad St Peter’s team on Thursday, but I refuse to be fooled twice. I will go to my grave fading this guy in March, and now is when things really get good. In his past 14 games from the Round of 32 or later, Barnes’ teams are 2-12 ATS with 9 outright losses. The more recent history is even worse, as the Tennessee coach is on an 0-6 ATS and 1-5 straight up run in those tournament games. Those trends and the way the SEC has looked in general are more than enough for me to back a talent-rich Big12 team here.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Oregon +5 vs Creighton (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on TBS

From a coach to fade to a coach to follow. Dana Altman is who I want to back with my money in March, as he is now 16-6-1 ATS lifetime in the big dance. Since coming to Oregon, Altman is 9-3 ATS with 6 straight up wins as an NCAA tournament underdog. This Oregon team is finally rounding into form after an injury-plagued season, and I think they’re positioned for a much deeper run in this tournament.

Creighton can be extremely dangerous if they’re hitting three’s since they take so many of them, but they shot it far too well on Thursday to stay that hot against an athletic perimeter defense. Oregon’s mid-range assassins Jermaine Couisnard and Jackson Shelstad should exploit Creighton’s drop coverage, and knock down enough shots to keep this competitive throughout. My gut tells me Oregon moves on here, but I’ll take the points with the hot team and a coach who is as reliable as it gets in this situation.

NIT Tournament (0.75 Unit) Virginia Tech/Ohio State Over 150 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

These teams have both been on very strong over runs down the back half of the season, and I think it continues tonight. Virginia Tech is on an 11-4-1 over run as they’ve been both hot offensively and weak defensively. Ohio State meanwhile has cashed over tickets in 11 of their past 16 games as well, and are 6-3 to the over with new coach Jake Diebler.

Every one of Ohio State’s postseason games have gone over this total as their shooting has been red hot and tempo has picked up considerably. The Buckeyes should be able to keep scoring at will against a Hokies defense that’s very weak inside. But VaTech can really shoot it, especially from two and the line, both of which will matter tonight. Early round games in the NIT are usually more free-flowing and high-scoring, so I like this one to clear the total tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2162-1944 ATS (+105.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.