Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/22

Locks

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Northwestern/Florida Atlantic First Half Under 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:15 AM CT on CBS

I’m going with the same theory as yesterday morning for that opening game – it’s too early for points. Northwestern is going to slow this game to a crawl, as they’re 342nd in adjusted tempo, and keeping this game at a manageable pace is the only hope their depleted roster has. The injury bug keeps biting the Wildcats with Matthew Nicholson now out, so I think they grind this game down. FAU is certainly dangerous offensively, but they haven’t exactly clicked on that end of the floor in the postseason. With this game at the Barclays Center, it should take some time to adjust to the sight lines and scoring will take a hit as a result.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Stetson/UConn Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:45 PM CT on CBS

This is likely to get out of hand once UConn gets rolling downhill, and that should equal plenty of scoring. The country’s most efficient offense is facing a team that’s 343rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, so the Huskies can name their score today. These 1 versus 16 matchups often get over the total simply on efficiency, and that’s what will be needed today as both teams are fairly slow-paced.

UConn is no stranger to that result though, as they went 5-1 over this total in the cupcake portion of the non-conference schedule. But don’t count out the ability of Stetson to contribute here, as the Hatters can shoot it. They’re 53rd nationally in effective field goal percentage, 38th in three-point percentage, and they take a ton of shots from deep. Enough of those are going to fall, especially once UConn stops trying defensively, and it should all result in plenty of points here.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Auburn -12.5 vs Yale (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:15 PM CT on TNT

We’re getting Bruce Pearl with ample time to prepare in this game, and that’s almost always a good result for Auburn. Plenty of people are looking at the Tigers for a darkhorse national champion, and they should roll here to kick things off. They’re just too good defensively, ranked 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and boasting the best effective field goal and two-point percentage defense in the country.

Yale does not have the shooting to overcome that, nor do they play the kind of up-tempo style that would allow them to score before Auburn’s defense gets set. The Bulldogs look to score inside, and that’s where the Tigers can shut them down. Yale notably faced two strong teams in the non-conference, losing by 15 to both Gonzaga and Kansas. They’re up against a better team than that today, so look for Auburn to build on their SEC title with a lopsided win here.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Colorado/Florida Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on TBS

Colorado had a brutal shooting night in the First Four, very uncharacteristic for them and something I expect to revert back to the mean here. The Buffaloes are 20th in effective field goal rate and 8th in three-point percentage, so a game where they shot 26.7% from deep is bound for positive regression. Facing a Florida team that has plenty of defensive issues should do the trick.

The Gators were understandably shellshocked by the horrific injury to Micah Handlogten on Sunday, and looked unfocused offensively as a result. I think they bounce back here, and are fueled by their excellent guards attacking the basket. Colorado struggles to defend that kind of offense, but should also find it easy to score inside with a premier shot blocker out of Florida’s lineup. There should be plenty of pace in this one, and both teams have elite offensive potential that can get this over the high number.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Purdue First Half Team Total Over 39.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:25 PM CT on TBS

I would pay good money to see Purdue lose again in this spot, but I think the more likely scenario is the Boilermakers re-starting a revenge tour they kicked off in November. They absolutely rolled in the non-conference slate this season, intentionally stomping on outmatched teams to flush the memory of Fairleigh Dickinson. Importantly, the Boilers got going early in those games, averaging 45.0 first half points and clearing this total against every cupcake they faced. Grambling isn’t terrible defensively, but against a motivated Purdue squad even high-major teams are usually in trouble, so look for the revenge tour to get off to a strong start offensively.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Longwood Team Total Under 51.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:20 PM CT on TNT

Houston is about to do terrible things to Longwood that might be illegal in some states. The Lancers are running into an angry Cougars squad here after they were embarrassed by my Cyclones in the Big12 title game. The country’s top scoring defense is going to clamp down with authority here against a Longwood team that hasn’t seen anything close to this defensive intensity all season.

The Lancers struggle to shoot it, and are extremely three-point averse, so trying to score inside against a suffocating interior defense will be tough going. Houston is no stranger to keeping teams under this number, holding 8 of their 9 low-major opponents below it during the non-conference slate, and I think they do it again here in a statement game.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) James Madison +5.5 vs Wisconsin (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on CBS

As a 12 seed, James Madison is automatically a popular pick, and as a great story this season they’re even more popular. Well I’m buying in because I don’t think they’re afraid of the moment one bit. They have the second-best record in the country to only UConn, making them proven winners that have also taken down a big-name Big10 team already this season. That win over Michigan State on opening night was the springboard, and now I think they pay it off.

Wisconsin doesn’t scare me one bit despite showing a glimmer in the Big10 tournament – this is still the team that absolutely collapsed once we hit February. I don’t trust Greg Gard one bit, I think the Badger offense is smoke and mirrors, and I think a Dukes team with an elite perimeter defense can shut them down. I won’t necessarily call for the outright upset here, but this spread is on the wrong side of the key number of 5 so I’ll take the points with a live dog.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Grand Canyon +5.5 vs St Mary’s (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on truTV

As if I wasn’t mad enough at the committee for forcing Virginia into this tournament, this might be their biggest crime. These should be two teams making Sweet 16 runs, but instead one is going home early and that’s disappointing. My feeling is that will be St Mary’s, but again I’m just going to take the points on a number I feel is too big. The Gaels aren’t exactly a great team to have in the favorite role, as their plodding style and scoring droughts bring in potential for a lot of variance.

I think Grand Canyon takes advantage, and I really love this team. They’re so much more talented than anyone gives them credit for, boasting a future NBA player in Tyon Grant-Foster, a ton of size, and plenty of speed. They have just the offensive game needed to exploit St Mary’s, as the way to attack that excellent defense is with mid-range assassins like Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison. Look for this game to be hotly contested to the end, where holding this many points is a big advantage.

Degenerates

Degenerate NCAA Tournament Moneyline Sprinkles

Oakland came home yesterday on this and Samford was robbed by the refs, so let’s go again. Teams in the 13/14/15/16 seed range winning a game is becoming a relatively common occurrence compared to a few short years ago, so these are the ones worth a sprinkle for day two.

Western Kentucky (+850; Odds via BetMGM)

Vermont (+600; Odds via BetMGM)

Grambling (+3000; Odds via Fanduel)

Charleston (+375; Odds via BetMGM)

James Madison (+190; Odds via BetMGM)

Grand Canyon (+200; Odds via BetMGM)

Tiny Nick is 2157-1941 ATS (+104.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.