Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/21

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Washington Wizards First Half Over 119.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on MNMT

I love targeting the first half overs when the Wizards are at home, especially against an opponent who can score. That’s what they’ll face tonight with the Kings, who are not as efficient overall as in previous seasons, but are crushing it in the first half of games. Sacramento is 4th in first half scoring and 3rd in road games, so they should be able to torch a Wizards defense allowing the most points before halftime.

Washington allows 62.8 first half points at home where their defensive efficiency is the worst in the league. But they’re relatively decent at scoring themselves in the first half as part of the early track meets they tend to get into. They should be able to push a Kings team that played last night in Toronto, and continue the trend of high-scoring first halves in DC.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Michigan State/Mississippi State 1st Half Under 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 11:15 AM CT on CBS

It’s too early for points. First half of the first game of the first day does not scream offensive eruption just in general. Neither does this matchup, as both teams are going to play more of a junkyard dog style of game. Michigan State is 306th in adjusted tempo while Mississippi State is 202nd, so we should see this game played at a crawl.

Neither team shoots many three’s so a flurry of points from beyond the arc isn’t likely to happen. And the biggest factor is the defenses, with the Spartans ranked 9th and the Bulldogs 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Expect a slow, sleepy, well-defended start while both teams try to figure out the sightlines to kick off the dance.

NCAA Tournament (1 Unit) Long Beach State/Arizona Over 163.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on TBS

This is entirely based on tempo, and these teams push it more than any other matchup we’ll see in the first round this year. Arizona is notoriously fast, ranking 16th in adjusted tempo with the 5th-shortest offensive possession length, but Long Beach is no stranger to that style. The Beach will run all game, ranking 27th and 13th in those respective pace metrics, and they’re going to need to if they want to compensate for a poor half-court offense.

Both teams really focus on scoring points inside and in transition, so a high volume of easy buckets is a good way to pile up the points. Arizona will push off both misses and makes, so I see both teams staying in a transition style all game. And it’s great to see the Wildcats up against a non-Pac12 team again since they’re so predictable in those games. Arizona’s non-conference games averaged 162.8 PPG this season, so in a matchup of two running teams I think that’s a solid estimation of the scoring floor today.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Long Beach State +12.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars)

This Long Beach team is playing with a lot of confidence and highly motivated to win for their coach who’s on his way out. I think they compete from start to finish here – another reason why I like the over since this game will not slow down – and this number is too big considering Arizona’s history. Tommy Lloyd is now 0-4 ATS in the tournament since taking over in Tucson, with some suspect losses and slow starts. Against a team and coach with nothing to lose, look for a competitive game early on.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Morehead State/Illinois Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:10 PM CT on truTV

Morehead State is an extremely slow-paced team at 335th in adjusted tempo, so they’re going to try to slow this game down. I just don’t see it working against an Illinois squad that has been able to dictate their up-tempo style against everyone lately. This Illini offense is too good and too hot right now for a mid-major team to stop its momentum, so expect Illinois to put up plenty of points. But an Illini defense that gets strained because of their elite offense should give up plenty here too.

Morehead can really shoot it, especially from deep, and if they find themselves trailing that will be the formula to stay competitive against a weak Illinois three-point defense. The Eagles faced Alabama and Purdue in the non-conference slate, the country’s 3rd and 4th most efficient offenses, and gave up 105 and 87 points. Now they face an Illini team that’s 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, so I expect plenty of scoring in this one.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Colorado State +2.5 vs Texas (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:50 PM CT on TNT

This game might not look great for Colorado State early on, but I have no confidence in Texas to maintain leads or make in-game adjustments. It comes down to Rodney Terry just being an inferior coach to Nico Medved, and despite the Mountain West versus Big12 conference mismatch here, the Rams really feel like the right side.

I expect this to be a tight, lower-scoring game that naturally favors the underdog. And putting Texas in the favorite role has been disastrous this season, as the Longhorns are 7-14 ATS when laying points. With momentum from Tuesday behind them and a trappy number hung on the brand name team here, I’m taking the points.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Iowa State/South Dakota State Under 135.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:35 PM CT on truTV

Roll Clones! Get your 17 to 1 natty tickets in now! My Cyclones aren’t making that deep run without outstanding defense though, so let’s start off the tournament with a typical defensive gem here. Iowa State closed the season with the country’s best adjusted defensive efficiency mark, and should be able to shut down South Dakota State here today.

This is not the same Jackrabbits team as last year with Baylor Scheierman now a Creighton standout, and the Summit League was much more defensive oriented this season as well. SDSU is no defensive slouch either, notably being excellent at defending inside the arc where the Cyclones are heavily reliant for scoring. But with ISU now facing a non-Big12 offense again after allowing just 59.1 PPG in the non-conference slate, I think they flex the defensive muscle enough to stay under this total.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) St Peter’s +21.5 vs Tennessee (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:20 PM CT on TNT

Four words: Rick Barnes in March. Do not trust this man with your money, case in point the opening game exit for the Volunteers from the SEC tournament. It goes back years and years at both Tennessee and Texas, with elite-level talent underperforming when it counts under Barnes. This is a scrappy, hot, and confident St Peter’s team that plays a style that can expose Tennessee to a lot of potential variance. The Vols are too reliant on one player to rescue them offensively and that’s not a good recipe in the tournament, so take the big number with a program that’s shocked the world before.

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Samford +7.5 vs Kansas (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:55 PM CT on TBS

Kansas is lost without Kevin McCullar, they’ve proven it time and again this season when he’s missed games. With the star Jayhawk guard announced out for the rest of the season, I don’t like KU’s prospects in the dance one bit. I think Samford is a live underdog here, as their aggressive press and volume three-point shooting can keep them in any game.

Kansas happens to give up a ton of three-point production, the 23rd-most in the country in fact, giving the Bulldogs the perfect formula to get in the back door at the very least. I wonder how much of an emotional impact McCullar’s status has on Kansas too, so look for this to be a potential upset situation for a Jayhawks team trading on name brand alone right now.

NCAA Tournament (0.5 Unit) Drake -1.5 vs Washington State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:05 PM CT on truTV

This is essentially the same Drake team from last year, the one who held an 8-point lead over Miami with a few minutes to go before the Hurricanes rallied for a wild win. Drake had to go home, watch Miami make a run to the Final Four, and wonder what could have been for them. The Bulldogs played all season, and particularly in their conference tournament, like a team looking for redemption.

I think they get it here against a Washington State team that has some impressive wins, but has really fallen off down the stretch. Interestingly, Drake faced 5 teams this season who ended up in the big dance, running 4 of them out and losing by a point in overtime at UAB, so they’re more tested than your typical Missouri Valley representative. They seem to be a popular pick, but I like the matchup and motivational situation for them here.

Degenerates

Degenerate NCAA Tournament Moneyline Sprinkles

Because why not, right? Teams in the 13/14/15/16 seed range winning a game is becoming a relatively common occurrence compared to a few short years ago, so these are worth a little pizza money in my opinion.

Long Beach State (+1500; Odds via DraftKings)

Oakland (+720; Odds via Fanduel)

St Peter’s (+2000; Odds via Fanduel)

Samford (+260; Odds via BetMGM)

Tiny Nick is 2153-1935 ATS (+106.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.