Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/20

Locks

NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Colorado -2.5 vs Boise State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:10 PM CT on TruTV

The preseason expectations for this Colorado team were very high, with multiple future NBA players on their roster. But injuries to those stars really marred the season, and we didn’t see the true version until they made a run to the Pac12 title game. But with their full complement of talent the Buffaloes are dangerous, and should prove it tonight against a Boise team that snuck in from an overrated conference.

The Broncos had another season of overperforming in the Mountain West, using their size and some shooting luck to reel off a stretch of impressive-looking wins. They won’t be able to rely on that here against a Buffs team that’s the 11th-tallest in the country and can send extremely athletic guards and forwards at Boise’s shooters. The Broncos really don’t have a true point guard either, and that’s a killer in March. Look for Colorado to flip the script on Boise here, punish them inside, and come away with a comfortable win.

NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) SMU/Indiana State Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I can’t imagine there are many groups of people more frustrated with watching Virginia’s embarrassment last night than this Indiana State team. Just imagine how much better that game could have been if the country’s best shooting team was there instead. So if I’m the Sycamores tonight, I’m taking out all kinds of frustrations and never letting off the gas.

Indiana State can score on anyone as the nation’s top effective field goal percentage and two-point percentage offense. An SMU defense that inflated its defensive statistics against weak AAC offenses will be no exception tonight, especially with the Mustangs being vulnerable to the three which ISU wants to take a ton of. And with the emotional factor for the Sycamores at play, I think they play fast and look to make a statement, which usually results in points during the NIT.

NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) UNLV +3 @ Princeton (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This Princeton team has been impressive all season, and defended home court with a perfect 12-0 record against fairly solid Ivy competition. But they haven’t seen any team with the kind of athleticism that UNLV will bring tonight. Princeton’s game is based on the cutting and three-point shooting that are common in the smart kids league, and the Rebels have the length and speed to shut that down.

The Rebels were also the hottest team out there until consecutive tough losses slowed them down, but I expect a bounce back here from a motivated team. We should also see a snail’s pace tonight with these teams ranked 311th and 312th in adjusted tempo, and a slow game creates natural value on the underdog. I think UNLV is a live dog to be honest, but I’ll take the points given all the close games Princeton found themselves in during the non-conference slate.

CIT Tournament (0.75 Unit) Alabama A&M/Austin Peay Over 144.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

We’re really scraping the bottom of the March Madness barrel here, but I’m greedy and value is value. I expect this game to be in the 150’s due to several factors, not the least of which is zero defense being played. Austin Peay is one of the worst defenses in the country, ranked 333rd in adjusted efficiency. The Governors are either getting a steal or allowing a layup, as they force the 6th-most turnovers but are 328th in opponent two-point percentage.

Even an awful Alabama A&M offense can exploit that, and I think their up-tempo style will feed into it and generate points here. And now that we have out of conference games it’s important to ignore A&M’s weak competition in the SWAC and focus on how they allowed 88.2 PPG in the non-conference slate. What’s interesting about this Bulldogs team though is they generate the highest percentage of their points from the free throw line in the whole country. Both teams are extremely foul-prone, so anything close to a tight whistle will keep both teams at the stripe all night on their way over this total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2149-1935 ATS (+103.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.