Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/15

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Ohio State/Illinois Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on BTN

I’m trusting the numbers and previous results here, both of which say we’ll see a track meet again. Illinois finally broke their incredible run of overs to close the season, but this is a team they know they can score on, having dropped 87 in the first meeting.

That was back when Ohio State still had Chris Holtmann as head coach, and their offense has gotten much better since letting him go. Case in point is yesterday when they put up 90 on Iowa, and this Illinois defense is vulnerable in the exact same way. With the Illini pushing tempo and the Buckeyes having a renaissance on offense, this should easily get over the number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Quinnipiac -1.5 vs St Peter’s (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on ESPNNews

I was shocked, and I mean shocked, to see Quinnipiac open as such a short favorite here. The Bobcats have owned St Peter’s this season, posting two double-digit wins in the regular season meetings including last Saturday. While this St Peter’s team is a scrappy bunch and can defend, they’ve allowed Quinnipiac to win the pace battle in both meetings. These are polar opposite teams in terms of tempo, and if Quinnipiac is allowed to get out and run like they want to, the Peacocks will be in trouble again.

Quinnipiac has rectified the issues that caused a big slump in the middle of the conference slate, racking up 5 straight convincing wins that remind you why they were so dominant early on. The Bobcats also have the rest advantage here as their MAAC tournament quarterfinal was Wednesday while St Peter’s played last night. Look for Quinnipiac to use that to their advantage, establish a fast tempo, and take down the Peacocks once again.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Houston -4.5 First Half vs Texas Tech (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Despite this being the postseason and a neutral site, Houston does not change anything about how they play. That means I’m applying the same basic principles to their games, so I’m expecting more first half dominance tonight. The country’s best first-half margin team was at it again yesterday, clamping down so hard on TCU that the Frogs took 10 minutes to get a point on the board.

Texas Tech has a relatively similar offense to TCU, reliant on the three, and that’s tough sledding against the country’s best defense and 8th-best three-point defense. I think the Cougars are on a mission in their inaugural Big12 tournament, so look for them to establish themselves with a solid lead early again here.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+110; Odds via Fanduel)

Kentucky (-205) vs Texas A&M: 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network

Nice win and cover for Texas A&M yesterday, but I’m going against them here. So is the entire market, driving the spread up several points from the opener, so that’s why I want just a moneyline ticket. I think the big problem here for the Aggies is a lack of shooting to keep up with Kentucky, who we know is going to lean on the country’s best three-point percentage.

Not only is A&M one of the absolute worst three-point shooting teams in the country, they also allow teams to live beyond the arc, so that imbalance will give UK the ability to pull away. Kentucky also has the overall size and athleticism to neutralize A&M’s biggest strength on the offensive glass. The Wildcats are out for revenge here from a loss two months ago, and I think they get it.

FAU (-230) vs North Texas: 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

I have a theory that Florida Atlantic really didn’t care about anything this season except getting back to the big dance and turning it on then. The Owls got the band back together from last year’s Final Four run, but it’s always felt like motivation was lacking throughout the year which is why they found themselves in so many halftime deficits and tight spots late.

But recently FAU has looked like the motivation is back, conveniently coinciding with the calendar flipping to March. This first postseason game for them is likely to get the competitive juices flowing, especially against an opponent that has challenged them this season as North Texas only lost by 3 and 4 points in the regular season. But the Owls are too talented for the Mean Green, and if they guard the three effectively it will be a comfortable win for this team everyone seems to be forgetting about.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Florida/Alabama Over 171.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:30 PM CT on SEC Network

In the first meeting between these teams, books expected an extreme track meet so they set a 174.5 total. Nope, sorry, 191 points, better adjust in the second meeting. For the rematch we saw a total set at 176, but again, no chance as these teams erupted for 192 in a game that wasn’t even competitive. This total reflects the neutral site and higher stakes in the postseason, but I don’t see any way to contain these offenses. Neither team can stop the other’s guards, and the elite shooting of both squads will be on display again in a game where at least one team will cross the 90-point mark.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UC Davis +1.5 vs Hawaii (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN2

These teams split the regular season meetings with blowouts on each team’s respective home floor, so there’s not a lot of true separation between them. That’s why we see such a short number here, but I didn’t agree with who opened as the favorite. That would be Hawaii, but the market has quickly corrected that to flip it to UC Davis.

This Aggies team has been hot after a late-season slump, taking out some of the best teams in the conference. They also have by far the best player in the Big West with Elijah Pepper, who the Rainbow Warriors have no answer for. I thought Davis was a good pick to win this tournament, and I think they justify that with a win in the semis here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2136-1926 ATS (+102.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.