Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/14

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Wichita State/Memphis Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on ESPNU

There were two meetings between these teams in the regular season with two wildly different results. The first produced 198 points as Memphis went wild with 112 of their own, then the second only got to 128 points. That second meeting saw an incredible drop-off in shooting from both teams, and was played just as Memphis was pulling themselves out of a major slump.

But the Tigers have turned it on per usual in March, and this offense is a freight train when it wants to be. With the slimmest of tournament hopes I don’t think they’ll want to leave anything to doubt, and that should drive up scoring here. Memphis loves to get out and run, and the Shockers should have no trouble with that style, especially after a very up-tempo game yesterday. Look for these teams to go up and down the floor regardless of how competitive the game is.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Wake Forest -1 First Half vs Pittsburgh (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:30 PM CT on ESPN2

Wake Forest came out angry yesterday, finally looking like a team that realizes how precarious a situation they’ve put themselves in for next week. The Deacons are also in a situation here that I like to take advantage of as they already have a game under their belt while Pittsburgh has been off.

Teams with a game to get acclimated in the conference tournament always seem to do better early than the rested one, which is not a very scientific angle but one I’m still rolling with. It also helps that Wake put it on Pitt in both regular season first halves despite going on to lose one of those games. The Panthers have not been tested  at all down the stretch of the season, and I think a motivated Deacons squad jumps out to an early lead.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Morgan State/Howard Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

These are teams with strong records to the over, a strong history of high-scoring meetings with each other, and I think the tournament environment brings out more scoring tonight. These also happen to be two of the worst defenses in the country, with Howard ranked 336th and Morgan State 343rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.

That’s why both meetings got over this total with 150 and 164 points, both of which were competitive games to the end. If we see another close one here as the spread would indicate, then two excellent free-throw shooting teams can pad points late. I think a fast-paced Morgan State team gets these bad defenses running, and that spells over to me.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Ohio State -1.5 vs Iowa (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on BTN

An opportunity to fade Fran McCaffrey in March? Count me in. Especially against a rising and red-hot Ohio State team that’s finally living up to its talent level under the interim coach. The Buckeyes have finally found both their offense and their defense over the past month, making them a scary dark-horse in the conference tournament. Iowa meanwhile has limped to the finish, with their only wins against weak or injury-plagued opponents, plus they have quite the history of being non-competitive in this event. I’ll lay the short price against them with a team that the market hasn’t fully adjusted to.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Texas A&M -4.5 vs Ole Miss (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network

The vibes around this Ole Miss program are really not good, and it seems like Chris Beard just doesn’t want to be there anymore. That attitude trickles down to the team pretty easily, and helps explain why the Rebels closed the season on a 2-10 straight up and ATS run. It culminated in a 26-point home loss to this Texas A&M squad on Saturday, and I don’t think the rematch will be any better for the Rebs.

Things have really turned around for A&M since Buzz Williams finally found some offense by inserting their best three-point shooter Manny Obaseki into the starting lineup. Obaseki has responded by going nuclear, and should help carry them again today against a relatively poor Ole Miss perimeter defense. The Aggies have the slimmest of chances to go dancing, and I think they pull away with ease against a team that probably just wants to go home.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Nevada -2.5 vs Colorado State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Colorado State has just not proven themselves in conference play after an incredible run early this season. Nevada on the other hand has turned into arguably the hottest team in the country, certainly in the Mountain West, and should be looking to take down the conference tournament. I think that starts here against a Rams squad they’ve beaten twice already this season. Steve Alford knows how to have success in this tournament, and I really don’t have anything profound to say about this game except that the Wolfpack are the better, hotter, and still underappreciated team.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) CS Northridge/Hawaii Over 138.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This total should be in the low 140s range, which is more where the metrics sites are projecting, and I think the potential for points is much higher than that. These teams got over this number in both regular season meetings, but because the under cashed in both we get a discounted total here. The neutral site in Vegas also brings the number down just a little, but both Big West games last night at Dollar Loan Center easily went over.

Northridge’s game last night went into overtime, so a Matadors squad that loves to run will have to deal with tired legs on defense. Hawaii is not likely to push tempo, but they did allow CSUN to dictate the regular season matchups and make them high-possessions games. With the Matadors doing so much attacking inside and the Rainbow Warriors having an extremely forgiving two-point defense, I think we see enough easy buckets to get over this low total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Georgia/Florida First Half Over 73.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on SEC Network

These teams are much more closely matched than the spread would have you believe, and I think that leads to another competitive first half between them. Both squads want to get up and down the floor, particularly Florida who is top-30 in tempo this season, and their excellent offense should have plenty of success again here.

The Gators put up 46 and 47 points in the first halves of the regular season meetings, resulting in 81 and 86 total points before halftime. But Georgia is a tough matchup for them, and with the Bulldogs already having a game under their belt in this tournament, they should have offensive success as well. I think that produces a fast-paced and high-scoring game early before likely settling down late.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Boston College +4.5 vs Virginia (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

You will not catch me laying points with this Virginia team in a tournament environment, especially not at this kind of number. And especially not against a red-hot and confident opponent with nothing to lose, as Boston College comes into this game with two very impressive victories already in the ACC tournament.

The Eagles absolutely cannot miss from deep right now, and the Virginia pack line defense is vulnerable over the top. Virginia’s pitifully stagnant offense is not built to compete with hot three-point shooting, nor is it built to win by margin in tournament games. The metrics gurus see this as a one-possession game at best for UVA, and I think BC is a live dog so I’ll take the points here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Mexico/Boise State Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on CBSSN

These are two very consistent and red-hot offenses that I think find their way over this total with ease. Boise especially has been incredible offensively, which is notable mostly because of how it’s a departure from years of being a defense-first team. But the Broncos are now a top-50 offense by adjusted efficiency, and put up 86 and 89 points on New Mexico in the regular season meetings.

Those games flew over their respective totals and this one, so I don’t think tonight’s number has been adjusted properly. With New Mexico not going to depart from their breakneck tempo, I see their offense also having a big night as they live inside the arc and Boise struggles with two-point defense. Metrics sites are projecting just a couple more points than this total, but I see a game headed to the 160s like the regular season meetings.

Degenerates

NBA Dallas Mavericks +3.5 First Quarter @ OKC Thunder (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Break out the tinfoil hats and channel your inner Aaron Rodgers for this one, just warning you. This is the perfect situation for the Thunder who are a great first quarter team, averaging a plus-3.6 average margin in home games. They’re catching the Mavericks on no rest here, and Luka Doncic is not going to play with a hamstring issue.

The Thunder owe Dallas for a 35-point beating they took last month, so they’ll have revenge on their minds. Everything is screaming to lay it in the first quarter with the Thunder, but this is a TNT game. These national TV games have burned me far too many times where it looks perfect for a team like OKC early, and I’m finally going to zig instead of zag with my tinfoil hat on.

Tiny Nick is 2133-1919 ATS (+104.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.