Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/13

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Detroit Pistons Over 233 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit

It’s the Raptors and it’s a road game, not sure what else I can really say at this point. They’ve just been a wagon to the over on the road, now up to 22-10-1 to the over with by far the highest plus/minus to the total. They’re no stranger to shootouts with the Pistons either, as the previous meetings this season saw 255 and 256 points. Both of those games came before Toronto really gave up on the season and turned into a defense-optional team on the road, so look for two bad teams to get up and down the floor all night.

NBA (1 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans Team Total Over 111.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports NO

The full game total here is depressed thanks to all the injury woes for Cleveland, and that in turn holds down the isolated number for the Pelicans. I think that creates an excellent opportunity with New Orleans, as they’ve gone 6-3 over this team total since the All-Star break.

The big key is who the Cavaliers are missing tonight, as it happens to be arguably their three best defenders. With Evan Mobley, Max Strus, and Dean Wade all off the floor, the Cavs are allowing a defensive rating of 123.2 which is far worse than the league’s worst defensive teams. Look for the healthy Pelicans to have a field day here against such a lack of wing and interior defense.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Lehigh +8.5 @ Colgate (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Colgate is about as trustworthy as gas station sushi in these situations, only being priced this way because of their dominance in the Patriot League the past few years. The Raiders certainly have the talent to run out anyone in the conference, this Lehigh team included, and might very well do that if they get rolling downhill on their own floor.

But it hasn’t happened yet against the Mountain Hawks this season, with Lehigh losing by just 3 in both regular season meetings. Colgate is a bad favorite in these situations because they can’t shoot free throws, just 312th nationally from the stripe. If Lehigh finds themselves in a desperation fouling situation tonight, I don’t see Colgate being able to extend the lead and win by margin with this inflated number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) New Mexico Team Total Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on MW Network

It’s now or never for New Mexico, and I think they respond with a big offensive outburst tonight. In a cruel twist of fate, the Lobos have to face the Air Force team that shocked them at home and turned them into a bubble team instead of a tournament lock. On a rough shooting night for New Mexico in that game they still got to 77 points, and put 85 on Air Force in the prior meeting.

The Falcons struggle to stop anything at 323rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 341st in effective field goal defense. A Lobos team that very efficient offensively, plays extremely up-tempo, and thrives on interior scoring should get plenty of easy points. With revenge on their minds and in need of style points, I think the Lobos have a big night on the scoreboard.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas State/Texas Over 140.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Texas has been an extremely reliable over bet down the stretch of the season, going 9-3 to the over the past 12 games and 14-4 to the over in Big12 play overall. One of the few unders came against this Kansas State team when neither squad could hit anything from the field, shooting a combined 35.9% on the night.

But it was a high-possessions game so the Wildcats were not able to stop Texas from playing their preferred up-tempo style. These are both strong shooting teams, particularly inside the arc and at the free throw line. If there’s positive regression on the shooting front from that regular season matchup, plus some desperation fouls in a game that’s projected to be close, then I think the over is the play here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) NC State/Syracuse Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

All the analytics gurus like this game to get into the mid-150’s and I think that’s maybe the floor of these teams’ potential. Syracuse games have been wild to close the season, as the Orange are on a 6-1 run over this number with 158.7 points on average. Cuse is far more up-tempo than they’ve ever been now that Jim Boeheim is gone, playing at the country’s 39th-fastest adjusted tempo, and should look to push against an NC State team that had a long game yesterday.

But the famed Syracuse zone is also gone, and this team can be scored on inside pretty easily. Syracuse is 312th in two-point percentage defense, and that’s where NC State likes to attack with big DJ Burns down low. These teams got into a wild shootout just a few weeks ago where the pace was exactly what I’m expecting to see again today. These are two underrated offenses and it’s desperation season in a tightly lined game, so look for the over to hit here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Montana State/Montana Over 144.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN2

I was finally bitten by a gettable total in a Big Sky tournament game yesterday, but that’s not scaring me off here. If Montana gets ahead here, which all indications say they will, then the Grizzlies are not going to take it easy on their in-state rivals. They’ve run up the score twice on Montana State this season, scoring 88 and 87 points in two games that flew over this total. Even if it’s a close game, the elite free throw shooting of Montana will add the necessary points to bring this total in range.

But I don’t think any of that will matter with how these offenses look right now. The Bobcats have been on fire from deep in this tournament, and can exploit a Montana three-point defense that’s 286th nationally. Meanwhile, Montana State simply cannot guard inside, and it showed in the regular season meetings as the Grizzlies shot 55.6% inside the arc. I maintain that Big Sky tournament games get wild, and I’m not going away from that theory in this finale.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UC Santa Barbara/CS Northridge Over 149.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN+

If Northridge remembered to pack their tempo before leaving for Vegas, then this game should be another track meet. The Matadors play at the 9th-fastest adjusted tempo in the country, flying up and down the floor looking for easy buckets. They are one of the least-reliant teams in the country on the three-pointer, preferring to look for layups in their up-tempo transition game.

That style creates the perfect matchup against a very weak interior defense for Santa Barbara, as the Gauchos allow opponents to get the 19th-highest split of their points from two-pointers. They haven’t been able to slow the Matadors in the regular season as both games flew over this total, and in a tournament environment I’m not seeing any reason why this one doesn’t either.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball California/Stanford First Half Over 70.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network

I firmly believe that these are first half teams, and I’m simply playing the number here at what I see as a discount. In the regular season the first half totals between these teams were set at 74 and 73.5 so this is considerably easier to reach. And they did eclipse this in both of those games with 76 and 73 points. Stanford looks to be fully healthy now with Spencer Jones back from a wrist injury, and that’s a big boost to their offense that has had plenty of scoring success against the Golden Bears in the previous meetings. I don’t see the change of venue to Vegas making so much of a difference to this total, and I’m sticking with my read of over as a result.

Tiny Nick is 2129-1915 ATS (+106.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.