Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/12

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Washington Wizards/Memphis Grizzlies Under 220.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

Any time the league’s lowest-scoring team takes the court you have to consider the under. When you match them up against another team that’s bottom-5 in offensive rating it becomes an even more attractive bet, so I’m really struggling to understand why this total is so high. Early in the season, much healthier versions of these teams only combined for 219 points, and the Memphis brand of basketball has gotten quite disgusting since then.

I know the Wizards don’t play any defense and run at the NBA’s fastest tempo, but the Grizzlies are essentially the mirror opposite and should be able to dictate style here. The Wizards just had a shocking win in Miami, so this very unserious collection of players is likely to be suffering from some “Miami flu” tonight. I think that helps slow things down and limit the offensive effectiveness, so I’m going under here.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Sacramento Kings Over 235 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

Ok, so it’s looking like the defensive evolution in Milwaukee might not have been built to last. This road trip has been rough for the Bucks, allowing 125 in Golden State, 123 to the Lakers, and 117 to the Clippers without Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. At that rate, this matchup that has always created shootouts should see one again tonight. The past 4 meetings between these teams have averaged 260.5 points, including earlier this year when they went to overtime with 256 points already on the board. I just see too many three’s, too much pace, and not enough defense here for it to not get over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Stony Brook +9.5 @ Charleston (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

There has been a ton of steam hitting Charleston to drive this spread up from what I thought was a fair number. That gives me no choice but to take all these points with the country’s second-best ATS team.

Stony Brook is 24-8-1 against the number this season, second only to Minnesota’s highly publicized run, and that includes a 10-6 mark when catching points. The Seawolves are in a tough situation here, playing their 4th game in as many nights including one that went to double overtime, but I think there’s an overreaction to that in this number.

They’re a good three-point shooting team that overcame a ridiculous shooting performance from Charleston in the first meeting to only lose by 6 points. The Cougars are known for letting inferior teams hang around, especially in high-leverage situations, so this is too many points for them to be laying in a championship game.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Stony Brook/Charleston Over 149.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

All the analytics gurus have this game in the mid-150s and I tend to agree. These are excellent jump-shooting teams who have no trouble playing with pace. Charleston especially as they’re 56th in adjusted tempo and will probably look to dial that up against the weary Seawolves. These teams combined for 180 points in the regular season meeting, and while I don’t think that’s repeatable, I do think a tighter game than expected will push this over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Denver/South Dakota State Under 156.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on CBSSN

I understand why this total opened so high, with metrics sites projecting a game in the 160s after the regular season meetings saw 179 and 167 points. But I also understand why it has moved down to here, as scoring has been tough to come by in the Summitt League tournament. Games have gone 7-0 to the under in this tournament and most haven’t been anywhere close to the number.

This tournament has historically trended to the under, especially against totals of 155 or higher. And with Denver’s leading scorer Tommy Bruner being helped off the floor last night, the usually potent Pioneers offense will be in a tough spot tonight. Both teams have shown the ability to defend when they want to in this tournament, and I think they do it again tonight with a ticket to the dance at stake.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Idaho State/Montana Over 139.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Big Sky tournament games never seem to disappoint if you’re an over bettor. It always seems like a team will go nuclear or a second half will get wild, and the desperation fouling is one of the most reliable of any conference tournament.

And it’s always with totals in this kind of range which is very attainable for these teams tonight. Idaho State and Montana landed on 144 points in both of their regular season meetings, with the Grizzlies finding it easy to score on a terrible defense.

The Bengals have the 339th-ranked effective field goal defense and get lit up from long range, so excellent three-point shooters from Montana will take advantage. But Montana showed their defensive weaknesses inside last night, and a Bengals squad that lives inside the arc should get some easy points. With Montana’s elite free-throw shooting able to pad points late, look for this one to clear the very moderate total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2125-1913 ATS (+105.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.