Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/11

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics -5 @ Atlanta Hawks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

It’s all about the spot here for me, particularly the scheduling spot that’s doing Atlanta no favors. The Hawks are returning home from four games on the road, including playing late into last night. And while I liked them in that spot in Washington, playing the Celtics on no rest is extremely difficult.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawks rested some key players tonight either, and facing Boston shorthanded is an even taller task. And while I like the new style adopted by Atlanta recently, the faster pace and less defense will only get you in trouble against Boston’s elite offense. Boston’s big rest advantage is baked into this line, but it’s still short enough below the key number of five for me to lay it.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Texas vs Kansas -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN

If you can’t beat them, join them. That’s my motto today after Kansas kept my Cyclones from the Big12 title game. It’s two straight convincing wins in the conference tournament for the Jayhawks, who look to wrap up a 1-seed for next week. They seem to be firing on all cylinders right now with Jalen Wilson playing his best basketball, as well as looking motivated to win it for Bill Self.

Where Kansas has looked their best is on the defensive end, which they’ll need today against a Texas team that has managed to score fairly well against them this season. Their excellent perimeter defense will be key today in a game I expect to be perimeter-oriented as both teams are dealing with frontcourt injuries. But KU just has a way of getting it done in the Big12 tournament, and this season they’re 23-3 straight up as a favorite. I think they take care of business here for back-to-back conference crowns.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Utah St +1.5 vs San Diego St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBS

San Diego State has gone through this Mountain West tournament on the back of their strong defense, but have also benefitted from facing a couple of pretty inept offenses. That changes tonight, as Utah State has marched to the title game on the strength of their elite shooting. The Aggies have really found something offensively in their 7-game winning streak, averaging 80 points per game.

I’m not sure the Aztecs can keep up with that the way they’ve been playing down the stretch. Especially their late-game execution on the offensive end which is far too reliant on Matt Bradley prayers. I’ll trust Utah State’s offense to get buckets when needed, but don’t discount their defense either that’s allowing just 66.1 PPG during their winning streak. SDSU may have taken both regular season meetings, but sharp money has been coming in on the Aggies here and I agree.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UAB/FAU Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on CBSSN

These are such extremely efficient offenses, I think we see another high-efficiency over like what’s been the dominant trend in college hoops for over a month. Florida Atlantic is 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency, with UAB right behind at 39th, so they both have the firepower to light it up again. With both regular season meetings flying over this total and their respective totals, they’re more than familiar with how to put up points on each other.

One of those regular season meetings was insanely efficient and the other was very fast-paced, so these teams can play either style that’s necessary for hitting the over. This also looks like another close and hard-fought title game, with the potential for plenty of fouls and free throws late. But UAB is going to push the pace, FAU is going to shoot a lot of three’s, and that tells me we’re in for another high-scoring game between these excellent teams.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Grand Canyon/Southern Utah Over 148 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN2

I’m not letting the precious-few opportunities to bet Grand Canyon overs go to waste, as the Lopes likely only have a couple games remaining in this season of incredible over trends. A full 75% of their games have cashed over tickets, including all three of their WAC tournament tilts. Those tournament games cashing their respective overs has actually been the biggest surprise considering the opponents, but there’s no question Southern Utah will be game for another shootout.

The Thunderbirds aren’t terribly interested in defense to start, and will be tired from last night’s furious 23-point comeback win. And GCU’s excellent three-point shooting should have plenty of success against the team that’s 279th in three-point percentage defense, which bore out in the first meeting 10 days ago. But despite the tournament fatigue, I don’t see Southern Utah slowing down its 16th-fastest adjusted tempo against a porous Lopes defense. That should help create a shootout similar to the first meeting, and I think this game flies over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1146-980 ATS (+81.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.