Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/11

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets First Half Team Total Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude Sports

The Nuggets are starting to wake up from hibernation, and that’s a scary proposition. With Jamal Murray now back in the lineup, this full-strength version of the defending champs can hang big numbers on anyone, especially bad defenses like they’ll see tonight. Betting on the Raptors to give up points on the road is pretty safe right now as they’re 28th in road defensive efficiency, and have been shredded in first halves by the competent offenses they’ve faced in recent road games.

Toronto even gave up 63 points before halftime in Portland on Saturday night, so this elite Denver offense should have no trouble whatsoever. This number is essentially right on Denver’s average of 60.4 first half points per game at home, so with an awful Raptors defense in town I think they take advantage early in this one.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Denver Nuggets First Half -8.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

In their game against the Jazz on Saturday night, this Denver team looked like they were having fun tearing apart a bad defense. Utah is one of the two teams with a worse defensive efficiency mark on the road than Toronto, and the Nuggets put up 78 before halftime for a 34-point lead. If they want to enjoy themselves again here they’re certainly capable, and with a big road game in Miami coming up Wednesday, I think they’ll want to get this one over with quickly.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) East Tennessee State +10 vs Samford (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This number has been coming down quickly from the open, but I still like it here at double digits. The analytics gurus are projecting around an 8-point margin between these teams, and I think we’ll see a competitive game to the end. East Tennessee State is no great team, but they’re hot at the right time of year.

While they have the unenviable task of playing their fourth game in four nights here, against a fast-paced Samford team no less, I think adrenaline and the fire we’ve seen out of them will carry the Buccaneers here. And Samford has dropped their tempo considerably in the SoCon tournament, so ETSU might catch a break on that front tonight.

East Tennessee has also defended the three very well in the conference tournament, and they’ll need to keep that up tonight against a Samford team that’s lethal from deep. But the history of the SoCon tournament tells us that things are likely to get wild, and this is just too many points for a competitive team in a championship game.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arkansas State/James Madison Under 153 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

This total has been on a precipitous drop, crashing a full 5 points from the open which was in line with the analytics projections. I wish I hadn’t lost those 5 points here, but I still think we see a much lower-scoring game than anticipated. This total is still well above the regular season meeting that saw 150 points, and it’s also well above the outputs for both teams in this Sun Belt tournament.

Unders have gone 6-4 in this tournament, and only one game went over this number in regulation so scoring has not been easy at the Pensacola Bay Center. James Madison has an elite three-point defense to neutralize Arkansas State’s reliance on three’s, so shooting won’t be easy again tonight. With defensive effort turned all the way up in a championship game, I think we see these teams play it even tighter than usual to justify all the under steam.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Portland State/Montana Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Early-round games in the Big Sky tournament get wild, just look at last night or last year’s results. I think that creates points here between two teams who know how to score on each other. Portland State has been incredibly consistent against Montana this season with 73 and 72 points in the regular season meetings, and if they get to that level again this game will soar over.

Montana was the wildly inconsistent partner in those games as they only scored 46 points at Portland State, but 82 in the rematch. That first game was set to easily clear the total though until Montana went insanely ice cold in the second half, and I don’t see that happening again. The Grizzlies have some excellent scorers and closed the season hot, scoring 80.1 PPG the last 8 games.

And if Portland State tries the desperation fouling route, the country’s 3rd-best free-throw shooting team will pad scoring at the line. Montana should also be on a mission now with the top seed knocked out yesterday, so look for plenty of efficiency in this game to get it over the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2123-1910 ATS (+105.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.