Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/10

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans Team -7 @ Atlanta Hawks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on Bally Sports New Orleans

These teams are heading in the opposite direction health wise, and I think it creates a runaway for the Pelicans tonight. With Trae Young already on the shelf and Dejounte Murray not at full strength, I don’t see Atlanta having the firepower to contend with a Pelicans defense that’s 6th in efficiency, and actually performs better on the road. The Hawks have strung together three straight wins against other teams with major injury issues, but this healthy version of the Pelicans is dangerous. Look for them to shut down Atlanta in a revenge spot from early this season.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans Team Total Over 113.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Not only do the Pelicans have a defense that gets better on the road, but their offense improves as well. Their efficiency, shooting percentage, and effective field goal rate all slightly improve in road games. Putting them up against a Hawks defense that’s 28th in efficiency and 29th in points allowed at home should send the Pels over this team total that they’ve cleared in 10 of the past 15 games.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies Team Total Under 101.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK

From one team decimated by injury to another, with Memphis in an even worse position than the Hawks are. This team just can’t stay healthy, and the collection of G-League players they trot out every night just can’t score at an NBA level. Memphis is now dead last in scoring, offensive efficiency, shooting percentage, and three-point percentage, so facing a sneaky-good Thunder defense should be trouble again. OKC is a top-5 defense in efficiency and opponent effective field goal rate, especially at home, so they should hold the Grizzlies under a number they’ve failed to reach in 6 of 8 games since the All-Star break.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Furman/Samford Over 154 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This has the potential to be the most fun game of the day, as the SoCon tournament always seems to deliver excitement. These teams are stylistically very similar, as they both love to push tempo and shoot a ton of three’s. They have elite level scorers to make it happen, but it didn’t happen in either of the regular season meetings. Both games went well under totals that were posted in the mid-160’s, so we’re getting a big discount with this number.

Today’s game should also have another factor to boost scoring that wasn’t really part of the previous meetings: free throws. Being a semifinal game that’s lined closely, we should see plenty of fouls down the stretch to pad scoring. With all the analytics gurus expecting a game in the 160’s here, I have to trust the numbers that say this will be an up-tempo three-point contest.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Idaho State/Northern Colorado Over 142.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

There are two bad defenses taking the floor here that always seem to get these teams into a track meet. Both regular season meetings flew over this total, and it was a result of Northern Colorado being able to dictate the tempo. The Bears are a very fast-paced team, with the 34th-shortest offensive possession length. Idaho State is the opposite, ranked 360th in the same category and 339th in adjusted tempo, but they should once again allow NoCo to set the pace here.

The Bengals just played yesterday, so their already porous defense will be tired when the up-tempo Bears come at them. And Idaho State has one of the worst interior defenses in the country, exactly where the Bears excel and want to attack. With both teams in the bottom-50 nationally for effective field goal defense, an up-tempo game dictated by Northern Colorado will once again see plenty of points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2118-1910 ATS (+103.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.