Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/09

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Minnesota vs Maryland -13 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

Congratulations to the hometown Gophers for pulling off the upset last night, but this game is a totally different situation. Nebraska did not have anywhere near the defensive prowess that Maryland has, and it will be a big factor tonight. Minnesota shot 51.9% from the field last night, completely unsustainable for a team that was 239th in shooting percentage this season.

Maryland’s defense will make that reversion happen in a hurry, as the Terps are 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency. They held the Gophers to right around their season average across both meetings combined, beating them by 35 and 18 point margins. This number is certainly factoring in neutral site and tournament environment, but Maryland is just a mismatch for the Gophers and I see them running away again tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) TCU vs Kansas St +2 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2

TCU just can’t catch a break this season. When fully healthy and with all their pieces in place, this is an Elite 8 or Final 4 contender. But the Horned Frogs just had star big man Eddie Lampkin step away from the team to deal with a personal matter, leaving a big hole in their frontcourt. This team really relies on Lampkin as a defensive stopper inside along with his amazing rebounding ability.

This Kansas State team that’s a little undersized up front will benefit in a big way. The Wildcats love to attack the rim though with Keyontae Johnson, and have excellent perimeter defenders. TCU will be asking Mike Miles to carry the load today, and Kansas State should be able to somewhat contain him without much else to worry about. The Wildcats faced an undermanned Frogs squad a month ago and beat them by 21 points, so I’ll take the points here in a game where the wrong team might be favored.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Creighton vs Villanova +5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on FS1

I’m going to keep banging the drum for this Villanova team who I think is a live underdog tonight. The Wildcats will be desperate in this game as they probably need a run to the Big East title game to earn at-large consideration. But that’s not the only reason I think this number is inflated, as Creighton has not had much success against the quality Big East teams or Nova in particular.

The Bluejays beat Villanova by this exact margin over a month ago, but that was before the Wildcats truly started putting it all together. That explains the 12-point Nova win in the second meeting 2 weeks ago. And Creighton is just overvalued here after a disappointing season relative to expectations. They haven’t gotten it done against the upper tier of the Big East, going 1-9 ATS against the 5 other teams atop the standings. Villanova should be in this to the end, so take the points and maybe sprinkle a little on the moneyline if you’re feeling frisky.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) NC State/Clemson Over 148 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

New-look Clemson is a lot of fun, as the once offensively-challenged Tigers are getting into some wild games down the stretch. In their last 8 games to close the season they’re 6-1-1 over this total, with one team exceeding 85 points in 5 of those games. That includes a 96-71 drubbing of NC State a couple weeks ago, and the Wolfpack will have no problem with playing at the style Clemson seems to have adopted.

Even before Clemson games started getting wild these teams combined for 142 points in late December, so I’d consider that the absolute floor. But the Wolfpack are a team that’s going to play fast, take a lot of three’s, and not worry too much about the defensive end of the floor. NC State certainly has the range dialed in on this neutral court, dropping 97 last night. With Clemson’s offensive revolution, the style these teams want to play, and desperation fouls late, I think we see a total much more like the high-flying second meeting.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Southern Utah Team Total Over 78.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This WAC tournament battle between two in-state rivals is bound to produce plenty of points, but I’m going to focus in on Southern Utah in particular. The Thunderbirds have one of the most prolific offenses in the country, averaging 83 PPG which is 5th nationally. They also play at the 13th-fastest adjusted tempo per KenPom, and have the shooting ability needed to get over this kind of total.

They’ve already done it twice against Utah Tech this season, scoring 79 and 81 points in two fairly close contests. If this one stays close like those games, scoring will be padded by the late irrational foul game. They also generate a ton of steals and love to score fast in transition, which should create a lot of points for them here against a Tech team that’s 346th in turnover rate. This total is right on the conference scoring average for Southern Utah, and with the matchup and tournament environment I think they outperform that average.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Mexico/Utah St Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on CBSSN

I couldn’t believe how high I saw this total open, as much as 165.5 in some places. That was far too high for my tastes, but shows just what the expectation is from these two teams. Probably not coincidentally, the total got bet down to where the only meeting landed this season, an 84-73 Utah State victory.

But I don’t see it staying under this number given the quality of offenses and how New Mexico has played lately. These two teams can absolutely shoot the lights out, ranked 15th and 16th in shooting percentage with Utah State also 6th from long range. Neither team was great from the floor, and both were relatively cold from outside in the first meeting, so I see room for improvement off that 157-point output.

And the Lobos have been insanely productive on offense since Jaelen House returned, averaging 87.6 PPG against teams other than San Diego State’s excellent defense. With them having been pushed last night in a high-scoring affair, UNM should see their already porous defense a little tired here, and I think that creates quite the shootout.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona St vs USC 1st Half -2 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN

This is just a tough spot for Arizona State to be in after playing late into the night against Oregon State in the first round. The Beavers turn every game into a slog, and that can wear the opponent out. It’ll be a big shock to ASU’s system as well facing a much more precise offense that can shoot the way USC does, even though they’ve seen the Trojans twice already this year.

But those two meetings did not start well for the Sun Devils, who found themselves trailing at halftime by 10 and 9 points in games where they looked much better after the break. The Devils are just 165th in average first half margin thanks to a sluggish offense that’s 216th in scoring before the half. With the Trojans rested and having just faced ASU in their last game, I expect a rising USC squad to take a solid lead into half again.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1139-974 ATS (+80.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.