Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/08

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers +10 @ Boston Celtics (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

There’s just no way that the Celtics should be laying double digits against relatively competent competition right now. The Blazers might get down by a considerable margin tonight as Boston loves to start fast, and you might actually get a better number in-game. But the blown leads by this Boston team are pretty concerning, as their opponent has come from well behind to win in three straight.

Portland is the kind of team that the Celtics should be afraid of if that trend is to continue. The Blazers shoot it extremely well, take and make a lot of three’s, get to the line a lot, and have a dynamic scorer. And when the Celtics get into a rut they have a tendency to stay there, as they’re 9-11 ATS with a minus-3.7 average ATS margin after a loss. I’m not calling for the straight up win here necessarily, but Portland definitely has what it takes to stay within a big number against a shaky Celtics squad.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Devin Booker Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ

In Kevin Durant’s first home game with the Suns, you’re paying an excessive premium to back Phoenix in just about every market. And while I’m tempted by how good they’ve looked, I’d rather look to the prop market and exploit Oklahoma City’s poor defense.

Not only are the Thunder on a back-to-back here, they just allowed the Warriors to drain 20 three’s last night, so their perimeter defense isn’t looking great. It’s not great in general, as they’re 25th in opponent three’s made per game, and 26th in opponent attempts allowed on the road. So the opportunity is there for Phoenix, which has seen its collective three-point shooting stats rise in the three games with Durant in the fold.

It’s all about the spacing KD’s presence allows, and Booker has taken advantage by going over this total against the two opponents with poor perimeter defenses like he’ll see tonight. Booker is on his way out of a slump from deep, and I think this number and situation are catching him on the upswing.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Northwestern St vs Texas A&M-CC -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This number has an unnecessary amount of neutral-court and championship game scenario baked into it, and is creating value on the proven superior team. That would be Corpus Christi, who easily won both regular season meetings in very different styles, showing their versatility and experience. Those attributes will be key today for a team that’s full of veterans from last season’s Southland champion squad.

Northwestern State is no pushover, but they’ve really struggled to execute their style against the Islanders in those regular season meetings. The Demons are heavily reliant on three-point shooting, but have not been able to connect from deep against Corpus Christi. And the Islanders are the much more physical team that can dominate inside and on the boards. They’re also the second-best free throw shooting team in the whole country, and I see that helping them close out a second straight conference title game.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Minnesota/Nebraska Over 136.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

This number got bet up immediately by smart money that recognized the Gophers aren’t as bad offensively as their season-long metrics indicate. Those numbers are truly awful as Minnesota is 351st in scoring and 350th in offensive rating, but they’ve been improving thanks to having Jamison Battle and Dawson Garcia both healthy. Since a Covid pause last month, the Gophers have gone over this total in 6 straight to close the season with 147 points on average.

I think they can continue that offensive improvement against a bad Nebraska defense, but the Huskers are going to score with ease tonight too. Nebraska shot 50% from the floor in the two regular season meetings with Minnesota, as both games easily went over. The Huskers have made significant strides offensively themselves down the stretch, and the result has been their past 7 games averaging 148.7 points. In a tournament game between low seeds we should see a free-flowing style, and I think that helps these improving offenses produce plenty of points.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Northern Arizona +7.5 vs Montana St (-110; Odds via Caesar): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN2

You just have to root for this Northern Arizona team at this point, if for nothing else than the hilarity of seeing a team with what would be a 13-22 record in the tournament next week. Led by Jalen Cone, the Virginia Tech transfer who I think is the best player in the conference, the Lumberjacks are just on one right now.

In the small sample size of conference tournaments, you just don’t want to get in front of a team that’s hot from long range and in general. Now NAU can’t and won’t guard anyone as one of the worst defensive teams in the country. But anyone who stayed up late to watch Montana State win a double-overtime brick fest shouldn’t be worried about the Bobcats offense right now. They’ll also be exhausted from that game, making it tougher to deal with NAU’s tempo and outside shooters.

The Lumberjacks are also the country’s 19th most unlucky team according to KenPom, victims of one of the craziest buzzer-beaters you’ll ever see last month. That has a tendency to revert to the mean just like everything else, I think we’re watching it happen this week, and I think it helps keep them inside this number tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1135-973 ATS (+79.0 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.