Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/08

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

Yeah, I can’t help but be overly hyped from last night’s Wolves win, and my emotions are getting the better of me (PSA: don’t bet emotionally). Minnesota really came together on a tough day though, and they’ll need that dynamic again tonight. This will be tough since Cleveland is really good against the number when they have the rest advantage, but the Cavs are a long way from being their true selves with too many key injuries in Cleveland right now. Consider that this team is a freak comeback against Boston and a half-court buzzer beater against Dallas from having 2 wins in their past 9 games, against the Wizards and Pistons no less. Despite the KAT news, the Wolves are the healthier team in better form, so I’ll take them to ride the momentum of last night.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 @ LA Lakers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

The Bucks flipped from underdog to favorite in this game, and I think we get the bounce back from them that the smart money seems to be expecting. The post-break turnaround from Milwaukee had been impressive, especially on the defensive end, so the dud they had at Golden State was a surprise. Perimeter and transition defense has been vastly improved for the Bucks, which is key against a Lakers squad that plays fast and is a good shooting team. The Lakers have been pretty bad against the number at home this season, so an improving Bucks team should get their bounce back in a high-profile spot.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Dakota +4.5 vs Oral Roberts (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

Oral Roberts should not be laying points to anyone right now, not even the bottom-seeded team in the conference tournament. South Dakota is not a good basketball team, with a pretty awful defense, but they’ve at least been competitive in going 6-2 ATS to close the regular season. Oral Roberts meanwhile has completely flopped down the stretch, going 1-6 ATS during their 7-game losing streak to end the year.

The Golden Eagles haven’t been able to score during that losing streak, so I question their ability to take advantage of South Dakota’s porous defense.  The Coyotes are actually a great three-point shooting team, so if they’re letting it fly during this potential final game they should have success against a bad three-point defense. I think that creates a closer game here that could easily come down to the final possession.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Boise State +7.5 @ San Diego State (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on FS1

I think this is probably a bounce back spot for SDSU after they had a tough loss on Tuesday, but the number here is getting out of control. At more than two full possessions I want the underdog in this matchup, especially with Boise already having taken the Aztecs down this season.

Boise is in a bounce back spot of their own after a red-hot offense cooled down this week, but their ability to score in the mid-range is capable of exploiting a rare defensive weakness of SDSU. This should be a grind of a game between two strong defenses that’s decided inside the arc and on the free throw line. And in March, in a highly competitive conference, that spells close game to me.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UT Martin +9 vs Morehead State (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:30 PM CT on ESPNU

This is another number that’s getting out of hand, especially for a conference tournament semifinal. The metrics sites project this as around a 6 or 7 point margin at most, so I’m happy to get the extra value here. Morehead also had to play last night after a February losing streak knocked them out of the double-bye in the OVC tournament.

One of those losses was to this UT Martin team that has surged down the stretch. The Skyhawks play at a breakneck pace, ranked 14th in adjusted tempo, and that’s a style that frustrates the ultra-slow Eagles who are 334th in adjusted tempo. If Martin can effectively dictate the pace against a Morehead team on no rest, they can have success against a good defense. That should keep them in this one late, and at the very least keep a big back door open.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Morehead State Team Total Over 78.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

If we do see Martin set the tempo at their preferred style, then there should be plenty of points in this one. Both regular season meetings went over the game total, with 170 and 150 points in those games, and the Eagles put up a very consistent 84 and 82 themselves.

Morehead was able to knock down three’s in both games, shooting a combined 42.4% from deep, and will have more familiarity with the sightlines on this neutral court having played last night. An up-tempo style will just give that strong shooting more opportunities and I think Morehead capitalizes, so I’ll take this semi-hedge and hope to double dip.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2111-1903 ATS (+103.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.