Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/07

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 59 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

Philadelphia showed last night why they’re a great first-quarter over team, and I expect more of the same here. The back-to-back spot with travel added in will not help a 76ers squad that is getting roasted defensively, allowing 125.5 PPG and 36.0 in the first quarter on this road trip.

But the Sixers are still the highest-scoring team on the road in first quarters, and the matchup here suggests plenty of points. Minnesota scores the 4th-most points in first quarters at home, and their recent electric pace early in games has fueled a lot of high-scoring starts. Against a tired opponent with these kinds of defensive woes, the Wolves should take advantage and produce a big opening quarter.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Anthony Edwards Over 25.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

One way to look at this is Ant is just due to go over, for real. He seemed to get out of his post-break mini slump last game, although that was against a terrible Sacramento defense. But this Philly team can’t guard a parked car right now, and Edwards may even get to face some backups with the 76ers on no rest. In a national TV spot tonight, I think the All-Star shows out in getting back to his high-scoring ways.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Lakers -1 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

We now have two games and two losses by Memphis since the off-court distractions started dominating the conversation, so it has to be taking some kind of a toll. Not having Ja Morant, Steven Adams, and now Brandon Clarke has to take an even bigger toll on a Grizzlies team I’ll be looking to fade down the stretch of the season. This is a good place to start, with a pick-em line against a Lakers team that desperately needs these kinds of wins.

With Anthony Davis listed probable tonight, I’m looking for him to continue shouldering the load while LeBron James is out, and he should dominate against the injury-plagued Grizzlies frontcourt. While Memphis crushed the Lakers a week ago, that game was highlighted by Morant’s 39-point triple-double. Removing that from the equation entirely puts the Grizzlies at a big disadvantage, and the league’s 4th-worst road ATS team should fall again tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UNCW +10 vs Charleston (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I absolutely love this Charleston team and think they’d be a lot of fun to see in the tournament next week. But there is an incredible amount of pressure on this team tonight, as the discussion around their bubble status makes it pretty clear that winning here is their only path to the dance. It’s all you hear from the broadcast and studio crews during this CAA tournament, even when Charleston isn’t the team playing, so the Cougars have to be hearing it too.

I think those nerves are important for a team that’s incredibly reliant on being dialed in from beyond the arc, and if those shots aren’t falling early the pressure only ramps up. That makes this many points a lot, and I already thought it was an incredibly high number for a title game in general. This UNCW team is very well-suited for postseason play with their experienced guards, and they’ve shown it by knocking off top-seeded Hofstra last night. If the Seahawks can keep playing loose and with house money, then this number is easy to stay inside of against a nervy Cougars squad.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Notre Dame +6.5 vs Virginia Tech (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network

It’s sad to say, but this Virginia Tech team stinks. They squandered a loaded roster this season and will be lucky to get an NIT invite. Now the exact same can be said about Notre Dame, except there’s no chance they’ll see any postseason action beyond the ACC tournament. So that makes this perhaps the final game for the Irish, and would be the last game under Mike Brey whose pink slip is in the mail.

So I just don’t see the Irish going down without a fight and bringing a strong effort at least one last time for their coach. They did it in Brey’s final home game, knocking off conference leader Pitt. They’ve also been more competitive down the stretch than their 11-20 record indicates, only posting a minus-0.2 average ATS margin the past 8 games. With absolutely nothing to lose against this underachieving Hokies team, look for Notre Dame to keep it within two full possessions.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) St Mary’s vs Gonzaga -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

This St Mary’s team puts me in conflict, as I love them on the metrics but not on the eye test. That eye test came into play again last night as they struggled for a third time this season with a BYU team that isn’t very good. While I have my concerns about Gonzaga overall and for the big dance next week, you can’t ignore that their offense has been a rocket ship for the past month.

That gives them a big advantage over a Gaels squad that is perennially offensively-challenged. It took an extremely late and lucky surge for St Mary’s to knock off the Zags in the first meeting this season, and that was with the benefit of home court. Gonzaga fans take over Vegas every year for the WCC tournament, and the small Orleans Arena is going to feel like a Bulldogs home game tonight. Asking them to win by a possession here isn’t much for a team that’s won the past 3 WCC title games by double digits.

Degenerates

NBA Charlotte Hornets @ NY Knicks -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on MSG

Betting on the Knicks during this current hot streak they’re on is a bit like trying to catch falling knife, as eventually things are going to normalize or they’ll face spreads that are much too inflated. But that doesn’t seem like tonight given the trajectory of these two teams. While the Knicks refuse to lose straight up or ATS, going 11-2-1 ATS on their 12-2 run since February started, the Hornets appear deflated and ready for another beating tonight.

Charlotte has been abysmal since LaMelo Ball was lost for the season, losing by double digits in all three games. Their offense has gone from bad to worse without Ball, as the NBA’s worst team for offensive efficiency has only managed 0.920 points per possession in those three games. That’s how I see New York pulling away, as their offense has been on fire during this run. The Knicks have won 5 of their past 6 home games by double digits against much stronger competition than this, and I think they keep it going tonight.

NBA Golden State Warriors/OKC Thunder Over 242 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK

It’s not often you see a total open above the 240-point threshold. It’s even more uncommon that a total opens at this level and gets bet up immediately, but that’s the case with this game and I’m not arguing. The Warriors need a game to get Steph Curry back into a groove, and this OKC team that’s allowing 119.4 PPG since the All-Star break is a great opportunity.

But the Warriors continue to struggle defensively on the road, with the league’s 3rd-worst defensive efficiency mark, a big reason why they’re the best road over team at 22-8-1. With the Thunder 22-12 to the over at home, that makes this a pretty solid trend to follow. These are two top-3 scoring teams that play at the 1st and 7th-fastest tempos in the league, and have combined for 248 and 255 points already this season. It’s a massive number but I just have to look to the over.

NCAA Basketball Utah Tech vs Stephen F Austin -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Stephen F Austin ended the season on one of the lowest notes you can imagine, losing 113-69 to the WAC regular-season champion Utah Valley. Other than that though, the Lumberjacks have been competitive against all the top teams in a deeper than expected conference this season. And that blowout loss is partially explainable by SFA missing their top scorer and rebounder Sadaidriene Hall, who is slated to return tonight, although there are a ton of other injury questions for SFA.

A healthy Lumberjacks team would easily dispense with a Utah Tech squad that they already beat by 13 on the road earlier this season. Not coincidentally, Hall had his best game of the entire season in that one, so his presence is key tonight. As in the first meeting, I expect both teams to shoot it fairly well, especially SFA against the country’s 342nd team in 3-point defense. But the Lumberjacks are the team that gets stops when needed, so I see them pulling away to cover this number behind their best player’s return.

Tiny Nick is 1133-972 ATS (+78.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.