Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/07

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Phoenix Suns Over 231.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on TSN

Putting this Toronto team south of the border just makes their games go wild. The Raptors are 20-9-1 to the over in road games, going over by 9.0 points on average, both of which are the best marks in the league. Their defense just never leaves Canada, as they allow 1.171 points per possession which is somehow worse than what the Wizards are doing on the season. Phoenix is not the same with Devin Booker out of the lineup, but they still have plenty of firepower to score with ease on such awful defense. That should be enough to send this game over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Rutgers +9.5 @ Wisconsin (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

Wisconsin might not be worthy of laying points to anyone right now, and certainly not this big of a number. The Badgers are an astoundingly bad 1-12 ATS in their past 13 games, including 9 straight non-covers. In that stretch of awfulness was a 22-point loss at Rutgers when they were laying 3.5 points, so the Scarlet Knights know how to beat this team.

This should be a slog of a game, with Rutgers leaning on the country’s 4th-best defense by adjusted efficiency and Wisconsin playing at a crawl since they’re 323rd in adjusted tempo. That makes it tough to win by margin just in general, and I don’t see it happening by double digits tonight.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) North Alabama/Austin Peay Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This number should be on the rise but it’s stayed put, so I’m jumping on the over. One reason it might be holding steady is bettors looking at Austin Peay’s pace, which on the season is 337th in adjusted tempo. But the Governors have thrown that style out the window down the stretch of the season, and their past 9 games have gone 8-1 over this total with 168.7 points on average.

They also cleared the total with ease in both meetings with North Alabama this season, which is a team that can stay competitive with them. The Lions will have no issue playing fast, and these defenses are both awful from adjusted efficiency and effective field goal defense standpoints. In a tournament semifinal there should be the opportunity for desperation fouling down the stretch, but might not even be necessary in this up-tempo game.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Fairfield Team Total Over 77.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Fairfield was maybe the hottest three-point shooting team outside of Kentucky for a couple weeks until hitting a wall last game. But that was against a good three-point defense and extremely slow-paced team, so tonight should be a return to normal for the Stags. They’re the country’s 14th-best three-point shooting team, and had put up 94, 85, and 88 points before Friday’s dud.

They’ve also already had an incredible shooting night against Canisius this season, dropping 88 points on the Golden Griffins with 50% shooting from deep in the first meeting. Now returning home, with the MAAC regular-season championship still within reach, I expect Fairfield to light it up from long range and clear this team total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Northern Kentucky/Wright State Over 160.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I don’t understand this total, as it opened below not only the metrics projections but also both results from the regular season. We just saw these teams play in the regular season finale on Saturday where they combined for 182 points and they put up 163 in the first meeting, not surprising since Wright State is the best team to the over this season. Both teams play fast, and their defensive weaknesses match up exactly with the other’s offensive strength.

Northern Kentucky cannot defend inside the arc, ranking 334th in opponent two-point percentage, and Wright State lives inside the arc. The Raiders are 4th nationally in two-point percentage and are 13th in the percentage of their points that come via the two. But Wright State cannot stop a nosebleed, ranking 343rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, 351st in effective field goal defense, and 341st in two-point defense where the Norse like to attack as well. There are just too many easy buckets coming in this game, so I’m going with the over here.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) California/Stanford First Half Over 73.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN2

The total in this game is on the rise, but I’ve seen too many Stanford games to get fooled by them again. The Cardinal are a first half team, plain and simple, ranking 54th in first half scoring and averaging 40.1 points in home games. But they’re just 146th in second-half scoring, and I’ve seen several over bets die on the vine after looking good at halftime. Look no further than the first meeting between these teams that had 76 points at half, but just 68 in the second to fall short of the total.

Stanford is going to play up-tempo here, and Cal is likely to go along with that style. Both teams are also going to fire a ton of three’s, as the Golden Bears are 59th and Cardinal are 77th in attempts from deep. Those shots are going to be dropping, with Cal ranking 297th and Stanford 315th in three-point percentage defense. If Lance Jones returns for Stanford tonight that would just add to the plethora of sneaky-good scorers on the floor, and should create another high-scoring first half.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2109-1900 ATS (+104.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.