Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/06

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Indiana Pacers 1st Quarter Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

There was an extremely profitable angle for most of the season where fading Indiana in the first quarter was free money. That’s started to normalize, but the reversion has a lot to do with the Pacers picking it up offensively. They’ve been on fire since the All-Star break, averaging 121.4 PPG and 29.6 in the first quarter. That’s strong improvement for the lowest-scoring first quarter team in the league at 26.9 on average, and should help fuel tonight’s opening quarter.

But it’s not like the Pacers have become an elite defensive team as they still allow the most first-quarter points in home games, plus the back-to-back spot with travel here won’t help with defensive effort. So it’s a tough time to welcome in the league’s top team for first-quarter scoring on the road. Philadelphia averages 30.2 points in road first quarters, and their 3 road games since the break have averaged 68.3 points. The Sixers might do a lot of the work here, but continued success from Indiana should be enough to get this over the early total.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors @ Denver Nuggets -6 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

I don’t know what that was from the Nuggets early in their game on Friday night, and I’m still mildly upset about it. But they’ve had a couple days to work out their shooting issues that started to normalize in the second half, and a full bounce back will carry them here. For a team that leads the league in shooting percentage, 3-point percentage, and effective field goal rate, tonight presents a really great matchup.

This is not the tough defensive Toronto team of years past, as the Raptors are just 28th in opponent shooting percentage and 29th in 3-point percentage allowed. If the Denver freight train gets rolling against that kind of soft defense, I just don’t see how the Raps keep up with a fairly average offense of their own. So this seems like too short of a number for the best home ATS team to be laying against a Toronto squad that’s only 13-19 ATS south of the border.

NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/Sacramento Kings Over 237 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV

I mean, what are you supposed to do with Sacramento games at this point? The Kings are coming for under bettors’ souls lately, so I’m not stepping in front of that juggernaut. All they’ve done since the All-Star break is see their games average 260.2 points in regulation, clearing this total each time. Their offense is doing historic things in terms of production and efficiency, so there’s only one play to make here.

While New Orleans isn’t the best possible partner for getting a game over this kind of total, they should do their part. The Pelicans are above average in pace and see their road games average the 7th-most possessions in the league. They’re also 12th in shooting percentage, so they can put up plenty of points against a Kings team that’s 29th in defensive efficiency at home. That bad defense is another big part of why the Kings are the best home over bet in the league at 21-10-1, so don’t try to get cute with an under bet here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) South Alabama/Louisiana 1st Half Under 66 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

A lot of insiders were looking at this South Alabama team as a serious contender for the Sun Belt tournament title, and they’re on the brink of it tonight. The Jaguars were listed on metrics sites as having the most momentum in the country since February started, and it’s been based on their defense. This 11-2 run they’re on has featured them allowing just 60.4 PPG, and should be the theme tonight for a team up to 62nd in defensive rating.

South Alabama is also 31st in first-half points allowed this season, so they’re no stranger to locking down early. While Louisiana has one of the better offenses in the country, they haven’t been lighting it up in the conference tournament. This is also the third straight day of games for the Ragin’ Cajuns and fourth in five days for the Jaguars, so I expect them to take things a little slower to start this game. The chance of irrational desperation fouling keeps me away from full-game unders in tournament settings, but I think we see a low-scoring start here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Sacramento St/Weber St 1st Half Under 58.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I don’t care what you make this total, it’s not low enough for two teams that are allergic to offense and play each other to a certain style. Both Weber State and Sacramento State are outside the top-280 nationally for scoring and pace. With the Wildcats 319th and the Hornets 310th in first-half scoring on the season, this becomes a fairly obvious play.

Both regular season meetings easily cashed both the full-game and first half unders, with 45 and 46 points at halftime of those games. But despite those games finishing with just 98 and 101 total points, tonight’s full-game total can’t be set too low because of the possibility of late free throw points. That’s keeping this derivative total too high as a result, and with neutral-court shooting woes likely to factor in as well, I’m seeing another very slow start to this one.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Francisco vs Gonzaga -8 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN2

This is the fifth year of the WCC having their tournament bracket set up so that the top two seeds get byes to the semifinals. And surprise, surprise, it’s the fifth straight year of Gonzaga getting those byes. That’s given them quite the advantages over fairly tired and always overmatched opponents, and does again here. The Bulldogs haven’t been great against the inflated full-game numbers in those games, but they have led at halftime by an average 16-point margin.

San Francisco is on their third game tonight after surviving in double overtime on Saturday, and fits the bill as one of those tired and overmatched opponents. I don’t think Gonzaga takes the Dons lightly though, as they got a scare in San Francisco earlier this season. But the second meeting saw the Zags put up 60 in the first half, so they know how to trounce this team early. Gonzaga is the highest-scoring first half team in the country and will likely want to get this game over with quickly as the championship is tomorrow. That tells me they’ll put it on the Dons from the opening tip and take a double-digit lead into half.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1132-968 ATS (+80.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.