Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder/Portland Trail Blazers 1st Half Over 109.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:00 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW
The weird results in the season series between these teams, where we’ve seen two demolitions and one nail-biter, have been very consistent in staying under the full-game total. So I don’t want to mess with that in these days of unders being so hot, but the three games have also been very consistent with when the majority of points are scored.
The first halves are when 54% of the points have been scored, with 119.0 points on average compared to 101.3 after halftime. That tends to happen with blowouts, which books are expecting for tonight’s game. I wouldn’t doubt it after OKC has had three frustrating games to start this road trip, and might take those frustrations out on a team that’s incredibly shorthanded. The Thunder might do a considerable majority of the early scoring, but if they slow it down late I want to be on the first half over here.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Houston/UCF First Half Under 61.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
These are two absolutely elite defensive teams, ranked 1st and 11th in adjusted efficiency, and that should be the story again tonight. Especially early on, as Houston is 1st and UCF is 19th in first half points allowed. The Cougars take that defense on the road with them, ranking 10th in first half points allowed on the road, even in the gauntlet that is the Big12. And the Knights are excellent at home, ranked 11th in first half scoring defense. These teams combined for 42 points at halftime of their previous meeting, a game that exemplified their combined defensive styles, and I think we see another minimal offensive output here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St Francis PA/Central Connecticut Under 136 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on NEC Front Row
This St Francis team is truly one of the worst in the country, ranked 356th overall in KenPom and 346th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and their season will come to a merciful end tonight. I don’t see them putting up much of a fight against a Central Connecticut team that’s kept their awful offense in check this year, allowing just 61 and 62 points.
The key here is that the NEC is using campus sites so CCSU gets to host, and their defense at home has been excellent this season. The regular season meeting between these teams in New Britain only got to 125 points even though it was a tight game. I’m not expecting a close enough contest to justify late foul-game points, so look for this one to be on cruise control and stay under the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Long Island/Merrimack Over 138.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on NEC Front Row
The other top seed in the NEC is likely to have a different kind of game than the one I just mentioned. While neither of these teams has anything close to an excellent offense, they just get into track meets when they face off. Both meetings this season were very high-possession affairs, cruising over this total despite very average shooting.
Both games also saw a lot of free throws, which can reasonably be expected again since LIU is one of the most foul-prone teams in the country. With this total opening above the metrics site projections and then getting bet up, I see this easily getting to a total that’s only a slight upward adjustment to the regular season results.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) BYU @ Iowa State -3.5 First Half (-120; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
One last game in Hilton this season, so I’m not missing the opportunity for one last Cyclones first half bet. This has been incredibly reliable all season as Iowa State continues to be one of the best teams in the country for average first half margin. BYU has also been very good in first halves this season, but walking into Hilton on senior night is going to be an extremely difficult environment to play in.
The Cougars are going to keep firing away from deep with reckless abandon, and if those shots aren’t dropping against one of the best defenses in the country this could get out of hand early. I just keep being amazed by the numbers like this one being hung for my Clones, so this is essentially an auto-bet for me at this point.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kentucky First Half Team Total Over 43.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on SEC Network
It really feels like this Kentucky offense can be penciled in for 90 every game right now. With outputs of 117, 91, and 111 points in their past 3 games, the Wildcats and Coach Cal seem to be intentionally showing off the raw offensive power they have. I expect them to run it up again on a Vanderbilt team with no hope of stopping a motivated UK squad. Kentucky should absolutely light it up from deep, as their 3rd-best three-point shooting offense meets Vandy’s 349th-ranked three-point percentage defense.
That’s what happened in the first meeting, as the Cats shot 57.7% from long range en route to 109 points, 54 of which came before halftime. I’m isolating the first half here because Kentucky leads the country in first half scoring, and they may take their foot off the gas late with a massive game at Tennessee looming this weekend. Look for the Wildcats to make another statement here against a perfect victim for how they’ve been playing lately.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) San Jose State Team Total Under 67.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on CBSSN
This is a bad matchup for San Jose State, who has a poor offense to begin with and will be playing right into Utah State’s strength defensively. The Spartans love to shoot three’s, taking the 52nd-highest percentage of them in the country. They’re above average in shooting percentage from deep, but Utah State happens to own the 2nd-best three-point percentage defense in the country.
The first meeting was a good example of this problem for SJSU, as they shot just 21.7% on 23 attempts from deep and only managed 61 points. The Spartans have really only had success against the other Mountain West bottom-feeders, and average just 62.0 PPG against the top seven teams in the league. They’ve also had a tough time recently with just 60.0 PPG the past ten games, and I see an excellent Aggies defense negating their style well tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2105-1899 ATS (+103.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
Think you could write a story like this? Hockey Wilderness wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.
Recommended Comments
There are no comments to display.