Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/05

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/LA Clippers Under 227.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

This total is on its way down, and I can certainly understand why. The Memphis Grizzlies have survived and even thrived offensively in the past when Ja Morant is out, but this has to be a little different. I don’t know where their collective heads will be given the distraction and being in a high-profile game on national TV.

But Memphis has only played one game over this total since the All-Star break, as they are now the team with the top defensive rating in the league. We’ve all seen the wild results from the Clippers lately, but those have come against a couple of the best offenses in the league. And being back at home will again make all the difference, as they’re hitting the under at a 76.7% clip in home games. With Memphis one of the best under teams on the road at 61.3%, I’m willing to go under this total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Nebraska/Iowa Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on BTN

Well, Iowa is definitely on, and that’s a scary thought. This team that’s top-5 in just about all the important offensive metrics finally figured out how to score on the road, and now bring that red-hot offense into a revenge game. One of the typical road flops for this offense came in late December when they only managed 50 points at Nebraska and were run off the floor. Given what the Iowa offense looks like lately, that’s probably not good news for the Huskers.

Nebraska has had big defensive troubles on the road in conference play, allowing 78 points per game in the often offensively-challenged Big Ten. It’s thanks to opponents shooting 45.3% against them on the road, so now is not the best time to face the Hawkeyes who have definitely found the range. The last two times Iowa was in a home revenge spot this season they scored 92 and 101 points in regulation. If they mercilessly dish it out to the Huskers here, that and their own poor defense will turn this into an easy over.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Army/Colgate Over 149 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on CBSSN

At times this season Army has alternated between a bad defense and a great offense, which makes them tough to figure out but also explains their 15-15 record to the total. But one thing they can definitely do is shoot, ranked 34th nationally in shooting percentage.

That will be a big boost to reaching this total today so that Colgate doesn’t have to do all the work. I think the Raiders do a lot of that work though, as they are not messing around in the Patriot League tournament. They’re not messing around in home games lately either, dropping at least 92 in three straight including against Army a few weeks ago.

This team that’s 2nd nationally in shooting percentage can put it on any team in the conference when they want to, and I think they do it again here. This has been a very high-scoring rivalry with 165.8 points on average the past 5 meetings, and I see another today with Colgate continuing to run wild.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1130-967 ATS (+80.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.