Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/05

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Houston Rockets Under 228.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

This is just too high of a total for a Rockets home game, no matter how bad the San Antonio defense might be. The Rockets play elite defense at home, combined with pretty average offense, which makes them one of the better under teams in home games. And the Spurs fall off a cliff offensively on the road, ranking 29th in offensive efficiency.

The results between these teams are clear, as the previous meeting in Houston finished with just 175 points. Even the meeting in San Antonio was under this total until it went to overtime. And with Victor Wembanyama questionable tonight, I’m just not seeing enough offense to justify this kind of total.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Dallas Mavericks Under 246 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

When you think of these teams you think pace, poor defense, and plenty of points, but both teams are going through significant struggles right now. That definitely seems to be the case with Indiana, who is not bringing their offense with them on the road in recent weeks. That’s causing them to continue to fall short of the inflated totals they see pretty much every night, going 17-8 to the under in their past 25 games overall.

The Mavericks have been very inconsistent offensively as well, and now might have to play without Luka Doncic tonight. Keep an eye on his status, as without him I really don’t see these teams reaching such a high total. These teams were fully healthy last week when they only got to 244 points, so look for injuries and recent struggles to hold the scoring down just enough tonight.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Purdue/Illinois Over 162.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Peacock

This Illinois offense is just insane – home or away, regardless of the opponent’s style or defensive strength, the Illini cannot be stopped right now. They’re averaging 90.7 PPG the past 9 games, and cashing over tickets in 13 of the past 14 games. It’s not like this high of a total is new for them either, as they’ve cashed the over in both games this season where the total was in the 160’s.

It’s tough to find an offense that’s better than the Illini’s right now as there are only two with a higher efficiency mark in the country. Purdue just happens to be one of those, and the Boilermakers are red hot offensively themselves in recent games. As usual with Illinois, you want an opponent who an score inside against their defense that surrenders a ton of points via the two, and that’s exactly what Purdue brings with Zach Edey. That should help them pile up points against a poor Illinois defense while the Illini dictate an up-tempo style, sending this game over the total again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue Fort Wayne Team Total Over 80 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

These teams just played in the regular season finale on Saturday, with Fort Wayne going for 83 points. That was in a blowout, but in this first round of the Horizon tournament there’s always the desperation fouling factor to consider that can pad points late. I don’t think it will be necessary though, as the Mastodons have shown a clear ability to shred this awful Robert Morris defense that’s 328th in defensive efficiency. IPFW went over this number in both regular season meetings, and has closed the season with 83.6 PPG the past 5 games, so an up-tempo offense on their own floor should run it up tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Vermont @ New Hampshire +9.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’m getting ahead of what I expect to be a much weaker version of Vermont in this game. Tonight will be their first since key players Matt Veretto and TJ Hurley were shut down until the conference tournament next week. While Vermont is excellent, being shorthanded against a team like New Hampshire is tough as the Wildcats want to run all night.

UNH is also elite in defending the three at 12th in opponent three-point percentage, and the Catamounts are heavily reliant on the long ball, with Veretto and Hurley two of their highest-volume shooters from deep. I’m just surprised that this number is only 3 points shorter than the meeting at Vermont, so given the injury concerns I’m taking the points with the home dog that the metrics sites project closer to 7 points.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Harvard/Dartmouth Over 135 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Not only did this total open higher than what the metrics sites are projecting, it took plenty of sharp action to the over. I think the smart money is seeing the same thing I am, which is essentially a scrimmage in this final game for both teams. Neither of these squads are eligible for the Ivy League tournament that only takes the top four teams, so this wraps things up for both the Crimson and the Big Green.

Dartmouth has been cashing lots of overs since they said screw it down the stretch of the season, just launching three’s and playing hardly any defense. While their awful offense is not what you want to count on for the points here, they have been shooting better in recent games, and that’s created an average of 144.0 PPG the past 7 games. Included in that stretch is the previous meeting with Harvard that got to 136 points when the Crimson still had a chance at the postseason. With those hopes dashed over the weekend, look for both teams to get up and down the floor and go over this low total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2102-1896 ATS (+104.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.