Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/04

Locks

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+125; Odds via DraftKings)

Kansas State @ West Virginia (-200): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Unranked teams listed as a favorite at home against a ranked opponent have been dominant this season from an ATS perspective. So I’m tempted to take West Virginia on the spread, but would rather count on them to just win this game. These are two teams who can light up the scoreboard and the high total suggests a shootout, so in that kind of game I’d rather pick the straight up winner.

And in that kind of game I’d rather be on the side of the team who can get a stop when needed. This Kansas State defense can be elite, but on the road they allow 0.191 more points on a per-possession basis. That’s really hurt them in Big12 play, allowing 83.5 PPG on the road. But the Mountaineers really pick it up on both ends of the floor at home, and in this revenge spot for an OT loss I’m seeing them get the victory.

Kentucky @ Arkansas (-200): 1:00 PM CT on CBS

Again with the unranked home favorite here, and again I’m just asking them to win the game. This Kentucky team is about as confusing as they come, but I don’t see them escaping Fayetteville with a win today. Bud Walton Arena is one of the toughest road environments in the country, and this Arkansas team is returning home in need of a bounce back.

The Razorbacks are another confusing team, but they have all the talent in the world with superstar freshman Nick Smith finally healthy and getting acclimated. Arkansas didn’t need him to take down UK on the road last month, and now the injury bug has hit the Wildcats. With Sahvir Wheeler out and Cason Wallace iffy today, I think the Cats struggle offensively against the country’s 7th-best team for defensive efficiency at home. That should earn Arkansas a win in this high-profile and high-motivation spot.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas/Texas Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN

It’s not just that these teams combined for 168 points a month ago, although it definitely helps. That game was impressive from a pace standpoint for two teams that play a fairly similar style in that regard, with a ton of possessions. Both teams also shot poorly from outside, and I expect positive regression there to help boost scoring today.

The biggest factor for me though is how good Texas is offensively at home, where they’re one of the best in the country from an efficiency standpoint. But they aren’t very good on the road, so putting up 80 points on a great Kansas defense in Phog Allen is no small feat. If they can replicate or even build on that production today, then a 1.5 point adjustment from that total to this one is not going to be enough.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Maine +10.5 @ UMass Lowell (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN+

What is going on with this number? I don’t get it, and I think we see a tight one all the way to the finish of this quarterfinal in the America East tournament. UMass Lowell has had a great season by their standards, but so has Maine, and the Black Bears are exactly the team Lowell didn’t want to see in the first round. Even before Maine turned their season around in late January, they only fell by 2 points to the River Hawks on the road.

Then they followed it up with a home win over Lowell, so a double-digit spread here makes no sense. Maine’s hyper-aggressive defense, led by conference defensive player of the year Kellen Tynes, causes a lot of problems for Lowell’s poor ball-handling ability. That was the case in the regular season as the Bears forced 32 total turnovers in the two meetings. If Maine can hold up against the big Lowell frontcourt, they’ll keep this to single digits and maybe even pull the upset.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Southern Illinois vs Drake -5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on CBSSN

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, so I’m going back to the well again with this Drake team. The Bulldogs are on a very tidy 6-1 ATS run, and even though yesterday’s game was close from a spread perspective I think they have a much better performance today. Drake struggled with turnovers in the first half yesterday, but once they woke up were back to their dominant selves. They definitely had no problem shooting the lights out though, and if they still have the range today it will allow them to pull away.

One of the few MVC losses for Drake this year came at Southern Illinois where the Bulldogs really struggled to shoot but only lost by 4 points. When they figured out their shooting in the second meeting it was a 23-point blowout, as the Salukis are always going to look pretty rough offensively. SIU will try to slow this game to a crawl so their offense that’s 310th in scoring doesn’t have to carry the load. But if Drake is on, they’ll get easy separation from a team that just can’t score in kind.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UConn @ Villanova +3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on FOX

I’m going to continue to trust this fast-rising Villanova team that has everything in the world to play for here, and their tournament hopes must include a win today. Honestly I think they get it with how well they’ve been playing, but I’ll take the full possession of points as insurance. The return of Justin Moore and the surge of Cam Whitmore will be enormous factors today, as will a couple of key matchup advantages for Nova.

While UConn is red hot right now from the outside, shooting 42% from deep the past 3 games, those have come against some very poor defenses. Villanova defends the catch-and-shoot three better than any team in the Big East, so those looks won’t be as easy for the Huskies. And UConn also has a big fouling problem, 310th in foul rate on the road. With Nova the best free-throw shooting team in the country, they’ll have a big advantage at the line. The previous meeting without Moore was a 2-point game down the stretch, so I see the new look Wildcats being able to at least keep this very close.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1129-964 ATS (+82.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.