Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/02

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers @ Golden State Warriors +3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

The Clippers are slumping, there’s just no other way to put it. Losers of three straight since the All-Star break, LA has had incredible problems on the defensive end of the floor where they used to excel. Opponents are shooting a ridiculous 52.9% overall and 37.7% from deep in those games, numbers that would put the Clips at the bottom of the league if extrapolated over a full season.

So it’s probably a bad time to face a Warriors team that’s actually thriving offensively despite Steph Curry being out. Golden State has the 4th-best offensive rating in the NBA across this stretch of games that Curry has missed, and of course are one of the best shooting teams in the league. The Warriors are the league’s 3rd-best home ATS team, and also own a perfect 4-0 record both ATS and straight up as a home underdog. That’s enough for me against a struggling Clippers squad that should see its defensive issues persist here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Loyola-MD/Colgate Over 143.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

In this opening round game of the Patriot tournament the theme should be three-point shooting, and that’s getting me to lean to the over. Colgate enters the postseason as the best three-point shooting team in the country, and get to face a Loyola-Maryland team that’s 319th in defending beyond the arc. This is also a Raiders team that averages 79.1 PPG on their home floor, and have put up 96 and 93 in their past two home games.

But the Greyhounds are no slouches themselves from outside, and will gladly fire away from deep if that’s the kind of game Colgate dictates. With the Raiders just 283rd in defending the three, plenty of scoring opportunity will be there. The regular season meetings saw a big difference in result as the first had 168 points and the second had 139. But the total here is erring on the low side for two teams that have been strong over bets all season, so this number is attainable in a game where Colgate might run wild.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Diego/Portland Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on WCC Network

This is the last opportunity to exploit one of these horrific defenses as somebody’s season will end tonight. But it’s been fun for two teams that are 336th and 270th in KenPom for adjusted defensive efficiency, and putting them on the floor together in a tournament setting should produce one last shootout.

San Diego has gone through some odd stretches this season where they forget how to score, including against Portland in the last meeting. But a win-or-go-home scenario should have them playing an aggressive offensive style that leads to points. A Portland team allowing 89.3 PPG the past 4 games should allow plenty to a team with no shortage of scoring talent.

And I don’t see the Toreros having any kind of defensive awakening tonight either, as they simply can’t defend Portland’s expected barrage of three-pointers. And with a two-possession spread indicating a relatively close game, late fouls and free throws should pad scoring and get this over the big number.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1121-962 ATS (+79.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.