Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/02

Locks

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Penn State/Minnesota Over 151 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:15 PM CT on BTN

Minnesota’s offensive eruption against Illinois on Wednesday was unprecedented for a losing team across college and pro basketball, men’s and women’s, over the past 25 years. I doubt they’ll stay at a nuclear level, especially from deep, but there’s no reason they can’t score at a high rate against another poor defense.

That’s what they’ll see with Penn State, who ranks 300th in opponent two-point percentage, an area the Gophers excel at even more than their red-hot three-point shooting. Minnesota torched them in that department in the first meeting, shooting 63.2% inside the arc to fuel an 83-74 win.

But the amount of scoring the Gophers gave up on Wednesday is extremely concerning, and the Nittany Lions have been hot offensively with a revamped lineup. Look for both offenses to be the story here as another over comes in for two teams that are a combined 14-6 to the over their past 10 games each.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Illinois/Wisconsin Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on BTN

I’m just going to keep targeting this Illinois team for overs as an elite offense continues to prop up a very vulnerable defense. The Illini are now up to 3rd in the country for adjusted offensive efficiency, rarified air for a Big10 team, but the defense hasn’t stopped anything lately.

Allowing 97 points to Minnesota on Wednesday was the cherry on top of a trend that’s seen them give up 75-plus points in 7 of the past 8 games. Illinois’ conference road games have seen them go 7-1 over this total, with 164.6 points on average, and I see another coming today. While the Badgers aren’t elite offensively, and have gone through plenty of struggles the past month, they’re good enough to exploit the biggest Illini weakness.

That would be two-pointers, which the Badgers shoot 58.8% on at home, 20th-best in the country. Wisconsin is also not a good shooting defense at all, ranked 276th in opponent effective field goal percentage, so Illinois should stay hot offensively. I see that leading to plenty of points in what will be a desperation spot for the Badgers.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Michigan State/Purdue First Half Over 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

Michigan State has plenty of problems, seemingly a new one every game that continues to mar what was once a promising season. But one area of consistency has been first half scoring, particularly in road games during Big10 play. The Spartans have seen an average of 72.0 first half points in conference road games, going 6-2 over this total.

Now Sparty gets to visit a Purdue team that’s 5th nationally in first half scoring, and putting up an average of 46.0 points in first halves of Big10 home games. That’s led to a 7-1 record over this total in those games, with 78.1 points on average. Offensive talent is not the issue for MSU, so if they’re forced to score with a Boilermakers team that lights up first halves they can, and that should create plenty of early scoring tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Tennessee/Alabama Over 170.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN

Alabama overs for life. This team is just ridiculous, putting up 95 or more points in 7 of their past 9 games, while also allowing 75 or more in 11 of their past 12 games. One team has scored at least 98 points in their past 7 games, which is unheard of in college basketball That’s what you get when you combine the country’s most efficient offense with the 3rd-shortest average possession length.

They’ll probably do it again here in a revenge spot against a Tennessee squad that buried them by 20 in Knoxville. The Vols have their own elite offense ranked 18th in adjusted efficiency, and speeding it up with Alabama’s pace will result in points. Despite the giant number here, smart money immediately bet it up above the KenPom and other metrics projections, so I’m doing the same for as long as the Tide are on this offensive binge.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) California/Utah Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network

This game is going to be bombs away from deep all night. Both squads love the three-ball, they both shoot it effectively, and they both really struggle to defend it on the other end. This California team has had a lot of trouble defending in general, especially on the road where they’re allowing 78.5 PPG in Pac12 play.

The Golden Bears are also on the second leg of the elevation road trip, so defensive legs are not going to be at full strength. They’ll have to contend with a Utah team that finally got its groove back offensively against Stanford, and should be able to have the same kind of success tonight. With plenty of three-point attempts and an up-tempo style, look for this game to get well into the 150s or more.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Long Beach State @ UC Irvine -8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Metrics sites are projecting a double-digit win here for Irvine, and I’m inclined to agree. Those projections are likely just based on the raw numbers and not factoring in the injury to Marcus Tsoshonis, the leading scorer for Long Beach. His absence on Thursday was key to The Beach losing to lowly Fullerton at home, and if he’s out or less than full strength here it could turn into a rout.

The Anteaters already rolled in the first meeting by 11, proving that this is a bad matchup for Long Beach. The strength of Irvine is in their interior defense, ranked 9th in the country for opponent two-point percentage, which is what LBSU relies extremely heavily on. Irvine flexed that strength in the first meeting, holding The Beach to 32.8% shooting on their own floor. With Irvine rolling and Long Beach stumbling right now, I’m laying it with the home squad in a game that should justify the double-digit projections.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2095-1890 ATS (+102.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.