Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/01

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/Portland Trail Blazers Over 233 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Home and road splits to the total are a big factor for me here, as I think we see both teams stay true to their trends. When New Orleans hits the road they’re a great over bet, going 19-12 to the over. The Pelicans just play a different style away from home, as their defensive efficiency drops significantly and they average 3.5 more possessions per game. More possessions and worse defense against Portland is likely to be a recipe for points here.

The Blazers have the 4th-most efficient offense in home games, with the 5th-best shooting percentage as well. That’s helped them to a record of 18-11-2 to the over in home games, with the league’s highest plus/minus to the total. But Portland also allows the 4th-most PPG and 3rd-most per possession in home games, so a slumping Pelicans offense should get back on track and help fuel this over.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (-105; Odds via Caesars)

St Francis Brooklyn @ Fairleigh Dickinson (-400): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN3

It’s certainly March, where close games and upsets are the norm, but it’s not happening here. The Northeast Conference is typically a chalky tournament, with top teams having quite a lot of separation from the lower seeds. That’s the case here between St Francis and Fairleigh Dickinson, as the second-seeded Knights should advance easily tonight.

Neither regular season meeting was close, with FDU running away by 19 and 17 point margins. The Terriers are too weak offensively at 339th in offensive rating to keep up with an FDU offense that’s top-60 nationally in most categories. The Knights shot over 50% in both meetings, and with home court advantage here they’ll have no trouble surviving and advancing.

Penn St @ Northwestern (-180): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

Oh, silly AP poll, I hope you never change. After Northwestern reeled off four impressive wins in a row to reach the top-25, consecutive road losses in very tough environments has dropped them out of the rankings. Now they’re priced more like a typical late-season Northwestern team instead of the ranked version, but I’m confident they get this win tonight.

An excellent scoring trio of guards should be able to carve up one of the worst defenses in the Big10, as Penn State really struggles to defend on the road. And while the Nittany Lions have a very efficient offense, they’ve yet to beat a good defensive team on the road. One thing Northwestern is definitely top-25 in is defense, listed 24th in adjusted efficiency by KenPom and only allowing 59.8 PPG at home. Big10 home court has been incredibly important, and I see the Purple Cats using it to bounce back here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Orleans/McNeese St Over 148 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+

The Pelicans aren’t the only team from New Orleans that I think cashes over tickets tonight. The Privateers also appear headed for another high-scoring game thanks to zero cumulative interest in defense. The college New Orleans team, like its professional counterpart, has been one of the better over bets this season both overall and on the road. They’re 17-9 to the over on the year including 9-4 on the road, and the ingredients are there for another tonight.

Their 337th-rated defense will have a pillow fight with McNeese tonight, who is 342nd in defensive rating. While neither team excels offensively, those defensive numbers should be enough to get over this number. New Orleans will push the pace as they always do, and both teams are excellent at avoiding turnovers so there won’t be wasted possessions against those horrible defenses. There’s always plenty of scoring when these squads clash, going over this total the past 5 meetings while averaging 163.2 points, and tonight should be no different.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Chicago St/Gonzaga 1st Half Over 73 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on WCC Network

Gonzaga closes the regular season with an exhibition game of sorts, as one of the two independents in college basketball visits The Kennel. I’m expecting them to put on a show early and then coast late before heading to Vegas for the WCC tournament. That means jumping on a bad-but-improving Chicago State team from the start, and the Cougars will have no chance of holding down this offense.

Chicago State is just 260th in first-half points allowed, so the highest-scoring first half team in the country should do whatever it wants here. The Cougars visited 3 other what I’d consider quality offensive teams this season, and the first halves averaged 78.3 points. They aren’t totally incompetent on offense themselves anymore, so I think they can contribute here. But in Drew Timme’s final home game where the Zags will likely be showing off, I think the points pile up early before the home team coasts late.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1120-966 ATS (+81.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.