Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/28

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/LA Clippers Under 234 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

Taking the under in a Clippers game right now requires some serious contrarian cojones. But things have to normalize eventually for this team after a couple of outlier overtime games, and this looks like a great spot for it. Things might not look great for the under if the Timberwolves get off to one of their usual fast starts, but you simply can’t trust this offense down the stretch. Minnesota has the 9th-worst offensive rating in second halves at 112.9, which drops to 110.3 on the road, so scoring should slow down late.

And location will matter quite a bit in this one, as the Clippers are stellar on defense at home. They allow the 4th-fewest PPG when playing in LA, and have the best under record in home games at 22-7 on the season. Location has mattered in the season series as well, with the meeting at Target Center producing 243 points but the other meeting in LA only getting to 187 points. Rudy Gobert is expected back tonight to help drag down the Wolves offense as well, so I’m ignoring the recent results for the Clippers and going contrarian with the under.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Wizards/Atlanta Hawks Over 234 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

I have to keep riding the overs for Atlanta, especially with Quinn Snyder making his coaching debut for them tonight. Atlanta’s desire to play fast, shoot a lot of three’s, and disregard defense fits perfectly with Snyder’s style, which is why he was the only candidate for the job. That style of play has been fully on display in the past two games for the Hawks, and continuing it here should create another over.

They’ll face a Washington team that is not known for being kind to over bettors, but can definitely produce points in an up-tempo game. The Wizards are 7th in the NBA in shooting percentage, so giving them plenty of extra possessions against a bad Hawks defense should see them score easily. Books are certainly starting to adjust to Atlanta’s new style, but I don’t think it’s enough here against a team that can and should score at will on them.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Iowa @ Indiana -5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Revenge, home court in the Big10, and Iowa’s perpetual awfulness on the road are all big factors for this game, and they have me backing Indiana tonight. The Hoosiers will look to avenge a 2-point loss at Iowa in early January, a game where Iowa’s home/road splits really came into play.

Indiana actually squandered a 21-point lead in that game so they know full well how to put it on this porous Hawkeye defense. But unlike that game, Iowa’s elite home-court offense won’t be able to save them. I’ll never get tired of pointing out how terrible the Hawkeyes are offensively in road games, as their efficiency drops 0.244 points, their effective field goal rate drops 12.7 percentage points, and their 3-point shooting falls off a cliff to the 4th-worst percentage in the country.

Indiana might be off a big emotional spot after Saturday’s win over Purdue, but Iowa is in a flat spot of their own after the ridiculous comeback Saturday morning. Plus, Indiana needs this game to hold onto the double-bye for the Big10 tournament. Assembly Hall is a very tough place to play for a functional offense, but that’s not what Iowa brings with them on the road and it should lead to a solid Hoosiers win.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Toledo -8.5 First Half @ Central Michigan (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Toledo needs this game to stay one game up for first place in the MAC standings, so motivation should not be a problem for the most dangerous offense in the conference. They’re arguably the most dangerous offense period, leading the country in efficiency, and have put up a ridiculous 1.279 points-per-possession the past 3 games. Central Michigan is one of the most feeble offenses in the country at 349th in efficiency, and just won’t be able to keep up when Toledo hits the gas.

That was apparent in the first meeting where Toledo raced to a 28-point lead at halftime, but slowed down considerably later on in the game. That’s not uncommon for the Rockets, but their first-half dominance can’t be denied as they rank 3rd in first-half scoring and 4th in average margin. The Chippewas are 335th and 342nd in those categories, respectively, and I just don’t see how they keep up here against a red-hot Rockets squad.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Robert Morris Team Total Over 76.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Fading the IUPUI defense never caused anyone to go broke, as the Jaguars have the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency mark in the country. This should be the last opportunity to do so as Robert Morris looks to eliminate IUPUI and move on in the Horizon tournament. But this hasn’t been an easy matchup for the Colonials, who lost their final regular season game to IUPUI and only beat them by 7 earlier in the season.

That tells me we’re in for a closer game than expected, and in a tournament setting that can lead to inflated points from the favorite. If the two single-digit margins from the regular season are any indication, a relatively close game down the stretch would give Robert Morris plenty of chances at the free throw line. Or, the Colonials will simply score at will all game long against a team allowing 87.2 PPG the past 6 games. It’s nice to have multiple paths to success on this bet, and I think it gets there no matter what style unfolds.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): IUPUI +14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

The Jaguars are no stranger to giant spreads as one of the objectively worst teams in the country. But they’ve been covering those big numbers like crazy lately, going 8-2 ATS their past 10 games. With their previous success against Robert Morris, plus likely throwing everything possible at the Colonials in this final game of the season, I like their chances to keep this relatively close.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Villanova -1.5 @ Seton Hall (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on FS1

Get your Villanova futures tickets in now because the Wildcats are looking excellent in a Big East conference full of enigmatic teams. But I don’t think Seton Hall is anything other than what they appear, which is a middle of the pack squad with just one quality conference win on the season.

And that came by just a single point last month against a UConn team that’s impossible to figure out. Aside from that, the Pirates just haven’t been competitive against good competition, and Villanova needs to be considered at that level with Justin Moore back and Eric Dixon playing like a man possessed. The Wildcats were able to beat Seton Hall a couple weeks ago with Moore contributing just one point as he worked his way back from injury.

A healthy Nova team playing up to preseason expectations is a dangerous group that just isn’t priced correctly in their current form, and should take care of business here. Seton Hall loses when they’re supposed to, just 3-10 straight up when listed as the underdog. I see it again tonight, especially if Kadary Richmond is still out or hobbled for the Pirates tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1115-964 ATS (+80.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.