Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/27

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/NY Knicks Over 223.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on MSG

I’m not understanding why this total is so low given how these teams have played both recently and against each other. While one of the games needed overtime to get there, both meetings this season have gotten over this relatively low number, including a 251-point affair in the game played at Madison Square Garden. While that was a rare road over for Boston, overs have been the dominant trend in MSG this season and I see another here.

In their past 12 games each these teams are a combined 16-8 over this total, with the Knicks also finding their way over it in 5 straight games. It’s been thanks to a New York offense that has come alive recently, averaging 123 PPG in that 5-game stretch. Boston has been a more offense-oriented team all season that’s capable of putting a big number on anyone, and scoring has been picking up in general as teams shake off the All-Star Break cobwebs. That makes this total just too low in my opinion so I’ll be on the over.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic/New Orleans Pelicans 1st Half Under 116 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports NO

Looking to the under in the first half of games in New Orleans has been a solid angle all season, and I think this is a great opportunity for another. The Pelicans have been a fairly strong over team on the season, but that’s due to their performance on the road. At home they trend to the under, as does Orlando when they hit the road.

But it’s the first half numbers for both teams that I think are the driver of those trends. New Orleans is 21st and Orlando 28th in first-half scoring this season, averaging a combined 112 points. And they’re also both strong first-half defenses, especially the Pels who are 6th in first-half points allowed. Neither team has been impressive offensively lately as their efficiency numbers are on a downswing, and I see that holding down early scoring tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Florida Gulf Coast/Queens Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I can’t believe conference tournaments are here, but this should be a fun one to kick things off. There’s a reason these two teams combined for 166 points in their first meeting, and in this setting I’m seeing a similar result. The three-pointers will be flying in this one, as both schools are in the top-25 nationally for attempts from beyond the arc.

They went above their respective season averages for attempts in the first meeting, and shot above 40% from deep as neither defense defends the perimeter particularly well. With this also being a win-or-go-home scenario, we should see desperation fouling taken to the extreme here. Both teams are also strong at the charity stripe, so that will help pad points late. But I don’t see much defense in general here, so that and strong shooting should create an over environment.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) West Virginia/Iowa St Under 134.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This is the part of the Iowa State season I was hoping wouldn’t come this year, but the unfortunately predictable offensive collapse is here. The Cyclones have gone under this number and the respective game total in 6 of the past 7, and the lack of offense is squarely to blame. Only averaging 60.1 PPG over those 7 games will tend to do that, and I don’t see them getting out of this offensive rut anytime soon.

The lone outlier in those 7 games did come against West Virginia, but that was a strange game where all but 2 of the points in the final 5 minutes came on free throws. And being in Morgantown was a big boost to a West Virginia offense that isn’t as efficient on the road and should struggle in Hilton Coliseum. Iowa State is only allowing 61.5 PPG in Big12 home games and they have the 4th-best defensive efficiency mark in the country at home. Combine that with how ugly their offense has looked and I see another under for the Clones here.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Idaho St/Northern Colorado Over 147 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Don’t ask me how I know, I just know this game should go over. Weird things happen in Greeley (hat-tip Bad Beats) and that always seems to get games over the total. Idaho State does not have a good offense, as their pace and shooting percentage leave a lot to be desired for over bettors.

Somehow the Bengals always find their way over the number on the road though, as they’re 13-3 to the over on the season. Northern Colorado’s defense that’s allowed 86 PPG the past 3 games will need to be its usual awful self, and the Bears will have to dictate tempo. But if they do, this is the kind of matchup and situational spot that just feels like an over.

Tiny Nick is 1114-961 ATS (+81.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.