Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/26

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Golden State Warriors 1st Quarter Over 60 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

Fast starts in the first quarter are nothing new for either of these squads, and facing off today should produce another high-scoring result. The Warriors are 2nd and the Timberwolves are 4th in first-quarter points this season with both north of 30 points on average. They’re also very fast-paced early on, with Golden State 6th in first-quarter pace and Minnesota playing at the NBA’s fastest tempo in the opening quarter of their past 10 games.

Unsurprisingly, that’s created plenty of cashes to the over for both teams as books have struggled to catch up. The Warriors have the best first-quarter over record in the league at 37-22-1, with the Wolves not far behind at 35-27 to the over. In the two meetings this season they’ve combined for 66 and 74 points in the opening quarter, and I see a similar result tonight.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Brooklyn Nets/Atlanta Hawks Over 233 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE

It’s only been one game for Atlanta since they parted ways with former coach Nate McMillan, but the result was fairly predictable. That is if you bought into the rumors of why McMillan was let go, which was a desire to play faster with less defense and let Trae Young do his thing. That was certainly the case as they dropped 136 points on a Cavs defense that was vulnerable in a back-to-back spot with travel.

But I don’t see the new-look Nets offering up much different in the way of defense, especially after they gave up 131 in Chicago for their first post-break game. As a young team buying in on tanking, Brooklyn should start to reverse their season-long trend of unders, especially against a team like the Hawks who will push pace. Sharp money seems to believe the same thing as this total was hammered early, but I think it still holds some value to the over at this number.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Wichita St/Tulane Over 150.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPNU

You have to believe in this Wichita State team as an over machine, even at this higher number that’s been adjusted for their recent run. But a record of 13-2 to the over in conference play can’t be ignored, especially against the opponent they have today.

The Shockers don’t have the typical profile you’d expect from a cash cow for over tickets, but Tulane certainly does. And despite their slower tempo and relatively poor offensive numbers, Wichita has been more than willing to play at the style of their offense-oriented opponents.

There aren’t many teams more eager to play that style than the Green Wave, ranked 3rd in adjusted tempo by KenPom and scoring the 14th-most PPG in the country. This team scores a ton of points in transition but also gives up a ton, so expect more of a pick-up game here. Tulane was also stifled on the road in Houston, so look for them to bounce back with a return to their style in a very high-scoring game.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1112-960 ATS (+81.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.