Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/26

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Indiana Pacers Over 245 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBA TV

Don’t let yesterday’s strange outlier of unders going 10-0-1 dissuade you from betting high totals like this one. I’m trusting the numbers here, and they say we’ll see another track meet between these teams. That’s how the other two meetings have gone, with 263 points back in November, and 252 just on Valentine’s Day.

The Raptors aren’t guarding anything right now, especially on the road where they’ve allowed 125.1 PPG the past 10 games. That’s how you get the league’s best road over record, which Toronto owns at 19-9-1 with the highest plus/minus to the total as well. With Indiana 19-11 to the over at home and playing on no rest here, look for defense to be an afterthought as these teams cash another over.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Miami/North Carolina Over 154.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

After an absolute slog of a game against Virginia on Saturday, I’d expect North Carolina to want to get out and run tonight. They’ll have that opportunity against a Miami team that’s fairly up-tempo and takes a lot of three’s. And the Hurricanes have been awful on defense lately, allowing 80.2 PPG the past 5 games.

The Tar Heels should be able to do whatever they want against a team that appears to have given up on the season. Despite Carolina being much better defensively this year, their home games have been pretty high-scoring, averaging 161.9 PPG in ACC play. With sharp action driving this total up through the KenPom projection, I’m liking the chances for an outburst of scoring here.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Baylor/TCU Over 148 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m a little shocked by this number being so low since the metrics gurus all project it in the mid-150’s, which I tend to agree with. This game should be a contrast of scoring styles, but that should lead to high efficiency that turns it high-scoring. For Baylor it will be about the three-ball as usual, with the Bears being the second-best three-point shooting team in the country, part of their fifth-best offense by adjusted efficiency.

TCU is solid defensively against the three, but that didn’t matter for Baylor on Saturday against Houston who is elite on the perimeter. The Horned Frogs aren’t likely to try to match Baylor’s threes, but instead use an up-tempo attack inside the arc. That’s where they get the vast majority of their points, and where Baylor struggles defensively at 243rd in two-point percentage defense. Trading those looks that are high-percentage for each team should result in plenty of scoring tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2076-1876 ATS (+102.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.