Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/25

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers +1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

Both of these teams looked pretty sluggish coming out of the All-Star Break, particularly Philadelphia who needed to erase a late 17-point deficit. They still won and covered though, and that’s been the story all season for the 76ers who are the league’s best home ATS team. They’re also a perfect 4-0 ATS with a plus-10.1 average cover margin as a home underdog, and I think they do it again here.

Boston’s sluggishness was mostly apparent on the defensive end, and that should be problematic against a Sixers team that’s been one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA since January. But Philly is bound to lean on their defense even more here as one of the better home defensive clubs, and even Boston’s elite shooting takes a dip on the road. With the 76ers only having one home loss the past 6 weeks, I’ll back them here in this national TV spot.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Texas @ Baylor -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN

Bounce back spot, revenge game, Big12 home court, whatever angle you want to use, they all point towards Baylor today. This is a popular play among a lot of respected opinions, and that can be scary, but ultimately I think the Bears are the right side.

The previous meeting was a tight one right into the final seconds, so the angles I mentioned above should matter quite a bit. Baylor should get a boost today on both sides of the court, with the 10th-rated Bears offense being even more lethal on their home floor. And with Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua back in the fold, their defense and rebounding really improves. Where JTT helps the most is on the inside which is critical against a Texas team that thrives on two-point buckets.

After a tough couple games in Kansas, being back in Waco is extremely important for a Baylor team that’s won its past 5 conference home games by 14.2 points. That should help them exact revenge here in a win and cover.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Arizona St @ Arizona -6.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on CBS

Don’t let the first meeting between these in-state rivals fool you, it should not have been a single-digit affair. Arizona State took advantage of some cold shooting in the second half from Arizona to close what was an 18-point deficit, but they were down big right away. The Wildcats took a 17-point lead into halftime, and I expect something fairly similar here on senior day in Tucson.

It's simply a bad matchup for the Sun Devils, whose poor shooting bites them when they play at a fast pace. Arizona will definitely dictate that up-tempo style here behind a raucous home crowd on national TV, as they’re 11th in adjusted tempo. They’re also 5th in average first half margin while ASU is 153rd, and 2nd in first half scoring with the Devils at 213th. Motivated and angry Arizona has been on display in their past couple home games, and I’m expecting that again here.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Northern Arizona/Northern Colorado Over 150.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Nobody is guarding anybody in this game as neither team has cared about defense all season. It’s not elite offense that has caused both teams to trend to the over this season, it’s two defenses that are 272nd and 290th in adjusted efficiency by KenPom that are the cause. Both teams are also bringing up the rear in the Big Sky standings, so I don’t expect a sudden change in effort or style.

The first meeting saw 156 points thanks to a lot of easy buckets inside and in spite of poor 3-point shooting. A meaningless game, at elevation, should see more of the same bad defense with some improved shooting carrying it over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Auburn @ Kentucky -4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on CBS

Better late than never for Kentucky I guess, who has played themselves out of the potential embarrassment of being in the First Four in a few weeks. Most impressive about this turnaround is that they’ve managed to do it without much help from injured key players Sahvir Wheeler and CJ Frederick. But reigning National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe has put the team on his back, and he’ll be key again today against an Auburn team that’s excellent on the boards.

But I really don’t trust Auburn on the road in general thanks to their highly erratic guard play. A team that’s not very good at shooting gets even worse on the road due to questionable shot selection by the backcourt, and that drags their offensive efficiency way down. Kentucky has been able to handle teams with those kind of shooting issues throughout their upswing the last month-plus. At home in this spot with a lot of eyeballs on them, I think the Wildcats can again get it done against this short number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Youngstown St/IUPUI Over 149 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This number has been rocketing up since the open and with good reason. Youngstown State, on the back of their elite shooting and offensive efficiency numbers, has been one of the best over bets this season. The Penguins are 20-8 to the over on the year, and 13-2 in road games thanks to the 8th-best shooting percentage in the country and the 35th rank in adjusted efficiency by KenPom.

Putting that up against one of the worst defenses in the country, as IUPUI is ranked 359th by KenPom, should obviously be a recipe for points. It was in the first meeting where Youngstown squeaked by 105-74, which isn’t the only time a Horizon opponent has hung a hundred on the Jaguars. But IUPUI has quietly been figuring some things out offensively lately, and that has a lot to do with the smart money hitting this over. If the home squad can approach their 66.9 PPG average in conference games, then I think Youngstown takes care of the rest to get this over.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) St Mary’s @ Gonzaga -5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

I like Saint Mary’s because they’re a well-coached team that plays hard and has a great metrics profile. But they’re in trouble here. Ask Loyola Marymount how it feels to play Gonzaga again when the Bulldogs are out for revenge – it can get extremely ugly and this just feels like a statement game. With College Gameday in the house The Kennel will be insane tonight, and that will make it difficult on a Gaels squad whose primary scoring option is just a freshman.

That freshman, Aidan Mahaney, carried St Mary’s to their late comeback and OT victory in the first meeting, a game that Gonzaga had controlled fairly well early on. I don’t think the Gaels will be able to run the Bulldogs off the 3-point line like they did in that game, with Gonzaga looking much better in their half-court offense in the games since. But overall you have to heavily consider the revenge angle here that’s so important in college hoops, and the Zags deliver it more viciously than any program in the country.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Gonzaga 1st Half -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Given the hyped spot, Gonzaga’s anger, and their general excellence in first halves, I’d definitely look to back them early here. The Zags are 3rd in average home margin for first halves at plus-13.6 and lead the country in first-half scoring. They had the lead in the first meeting by 8, and I think they jump on the Gaels early.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1106-958 ATS (+79.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.