Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/25

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder/Houston Rockets Under 234 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OK

This total is built too much on Oklahoma City’s recent red-hot stretch offensively. When you look at those past four games where they’re averaging 132.5 points, you have to factor in some poor defensive competition. That’s not what the Thunder will see tonight, as Houston is second in the NBA for defensive efficiency in home games. That’s why the Rockets trend to the under at home, and kept a game with the excellent Suns offense well under on Friday night. And OKC is also playing great defense to pair with that offense, so I expect more of a defensive battle here like the first meeting that only got to 211 points.

NBA (1 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Utah Jazz Over 240 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

The Spurs have picked up after the All-Star break right where they left off. This team still can’t or won’t defend anything, and their tempo that’s third-fastest in the NBA fuels overs. That should match nicely with a Jazz team that’s always pushing tempo at home, where they have one of the best over records in the league.

Utah was stifled by a Charlotte team that turns games ugly in their first post-break outing, so this will be a welcome return to their preferred style. The Jazz haven’t stopped anything lately though, allowing 126.8 PPG the past 10 games, so even the inconsistent Spurs will have success offensively here. Look for fast pace and bad defense to carry this one over tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Minnesota/Nebraska Over 147 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on BTN

Both of these offenses are red hot, and I don’t think that recent success is being priced into their metrics profiles quite yet. That serves to hold the number down tonight, and they should get past it with ease on the back of high efficiency. With Nebraska, the scoring is always based on three’s, as the Huskers are 37th nationally for the percentage of points scored via the long-ball. That happens to be a weakness for the Gophers, who are just 182nd in opponent three-point percentage.

Minnesota is also fairly weak defensively on the road, where they allow almost 13 points more per game than at home, and their Big10 road games are averaging 153.1 PPG as a result. But don’t sell the Gophers short offensively, as they’ve topped 75 points in four straight against some decent defenses. And with the Gophers owning the best ATS record in the country they’re likely to keep this close, meaning foul game points down the stretch. Expect both teams to find plenty of success offensively here and continue their scoring binges.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Fairfield Team Total Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This Fairfield team is always going to live and die by the three, and lately they’ve been living to the fullest. The Stags are red hot from deep right now, hitting 50% of their attempts the past two games. Those came against opponents who are pretty vulnerable to the three-ball, but not nearly as much as Siena is.

The Saints have a case as the worst team in the country, but it’s their defense I’m targeting today as they rank 327th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 297th against the three. That’s what caused them to allow 93 to Fairfield in the first meeting, and the Stags didn’t shoot it as well as they are right now. I don’t feel like laying a big number with Fairfield as they have their own defensive issues, but they should torch Siena again today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2074-1874 ATS (+102.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.