Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/24

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat +1.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

Be sure to monitor the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo going into this game because he’s the key. Currently not expected to play with a wrist injury, Giannis has made all the difference for the Bucks most of the season and particularly against Miami. These teams have already played three times this season, with the Heat winning two of them.

The Greek Freak missed both of those Heat victories, but the fully healthy version of Milwaukee was able to win the third meeting just a few weeks ago. As one of the league’s top-rated defensive teams, Miami should again have a much easier time against the Giannis-less Bucks, especially being able to play at their preferred slow pace with Giannis not there to wreak havoc in transition. But ultimately there’s just too much evidence that Milwaukee struggles with this Miami team when their star is missing, so I’ll back the short underdog here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Seattle/Grand Canyon Over 141 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Grand Canyon is playing a basketball game? Cool, I’m on the over. It’s really become that simple for the country’s best bet to the over this season, who’s also 13-2 to the over in home games. I also think we’re getting a slight discount here based on the previous meeting a couple weeks ago where these teams fell 20 points short of this total. That was the only GCU game to cash under tickets since early December, and I think some positive regression will help turn this one into an over.

Both teams really struggled from the field in that game, shooting well below their season averages both inside and outside the arc. But the pace was fast and the possessions extremely high, so the basics for an over were certainly there. Seattle has a pair of excellent scorers in Cam Tyson and Riley Grigsby who are both in a slump, but they’ll break out of it soon and the porous GCU defense is a good opportunity. If they do it here, this total is nowhere near high enough for the style of game I expect to see.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) South Alabama/Louisiana Over 146 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This is sneakily a very good game, and that’s why ESPN is in the house. South Alabama is playing some of the best basketball anywhere right now, and they’ll be a serious challenge for a Louisiana team that often struggles to guard.

The current 8-1 run for the Jaguars has seen them score 75.7 PPG, well over their season average, but they haven’t faced any strong offenses in that stretch. They’ll see one tonight though, as the Ragin’ Cajuns are an excellent shooting team that’s extremely efficient.

But defense is definitely an issue for the Cajuns, ranked 231st in efficiency and 274th in opponent shooting. Combining that with the excellent offense has made Louisiana a safe over bet all year, with the 14th-best over record in the country. These teams shot the lights out in the first meeting that saw 155 points, and with South Alabama’s improvement since I think we see another easy over tonight.

Degenerates

NBA Charlotte Hornets @ Minnesota Timberwolves -2 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Wolves return to action in a revenge spot here, and I think they get off to another strong start. Those have certainly not been the problem for this team that prefers to cough up big leads. Minnesota is 4th in first-quarter scoring this season, and should be able to put up another big early number against a Charlotte team that’s allowing 30.5 points in first quarters on the road.

As for the revenge angle, Minnesota should be looking to pay the Hornets back for a November loss in Charlotte where the Wolves actually led by 5 after the first quarter and 10 at half. I’m hopeful they used the All-Star Break to get Mike Conley up to speed and heal up some injuries. If they did, then it should be no trouble to jump on one of the worst teams in the league early tonight at Target Center.

Tiny Nick is 1106-956 ATS (+80.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.