Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/23

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Boston Celtics 1st Quarter -2.5 @ Indiana Pacers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

I’m welcoming the NBA back from break by going straight back to the well on two trends that have been incredibly strong so far. First is the dominance shown by Boston early in games, as the Celtics score the most first quarter points in road games. They’re also 2nd overall in first-quarter points allowed, as well as in average first-quarter margin.

Secondly is the awfulness Indiana has shown all season early in their games. The Pacers are dead last in first-quarter margin both overall and at home, where they have a minus-4.7 average margin. That’s unsurprisingly thanks to them scoring the fewest first-quarter points and allowing the second most. So that makes this bet pretty simple, as I see Boston getting right back to work and covering this early number.

NBA (0.5 Unit) OKC Thunder +1 @ Utah Jazz (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on SportsNet RM

Sharp money has flipped the favorite in this game overnight, with OKC going from a 3-point underdog at open to now being slightly favored. Even positive news on Lauri Markkanen’s status couldn’t stop the swing, and it’s one I agree with. I was ready to back the Thunder here almost solely based on the trajectory I expect for both teams down the stretch of the season, with the Jazz already trending down entering the break. The Thunder are the far better defensive team with a higher offensive ceiling, so I’m following the smart money at a short price.

NBA (0.25 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings -6 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

This number is moving into a problematic range, but I’m still willing to back Sacramento small at this point. The league’s best offense in home games from both a scoring and efficiency standpoint definitely has the capability to run through a bad Portland defense. While the Kings aren’t going to impress anyone with their defense either, they’ll face a Blazers team missing key complementary scoring options.

It’ll be just the Damian Lillard show without Anfernee Simons or Jusuf Nurkic, and sometimes that can be enough. But I don’t see it getting the job done tonight against a Sacramento team that continually catches fire in its own building. This might very well be a shootout and the total is probably in play, but I’d rather back the elite offense at home that’s getting attention from smart money.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Towson @ Charleston -5 1st Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Pat Kelsey and his Charleston squad get a national TV spot here, and I think they show out in their typical fashion. That means early, with the Cougars still 4th in first-half scoring and 3rd in average first-half margin. Their past 4 home games have seen them lead by an average of 14 points at the break, and they also led by 10 at half in the first meeting with Towson.

While the Tigers have decent first-half results themselves as a whole this season, they just don’t match up well here. I don’t see them being able to dictate their incredibly slow tempo on the road, which is what keeps them in games. They also struggle to defend the three in road games, and Charleston is sure to launch their typical barrage from beyond the arc. With the Cougars in fantastic recent form and holding some extra motivation, they should jump on Towson early here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Diego/Gonzaga 1st Half Over 78 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN2

With how these teams play and such a high full-game total I expected the first half number to be at least 80 points, so that has me looking over here on a discounted number. Given that we have the country’s highest-scoring offense both overall and in first halves, matched up against one of the worst defenses in the country, there’s a realistic scenario of hitting the century mark before half. Among their other defensive stats near the bottom nationally, San Diego is also 349th in first half points allowed on the road, giving up 39.7 on average.

They should get buried by Gonzaga pushing the pace early, which the Zags have done to the max recently, resulting in their past 4 games averaging 89.8 points before half. Despite their layup-line defense the Toreros can score themselves, and they don’t turn the ball over so they’ll find success against a suspect half-court defense for Gonzaga. But if we see angry Gonzaga again like we have lately, then this total is nowhere near high enough.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1103-955 ATS (+80.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.