Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/22

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit): Minnesota @ Maryland -15 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on BTN

My Maryland family ties have me looking to back the Terps here, even against the hometown Gophers, and even at this big price. The rule is to always back Maryland at home though, who is 11-4 ATS in their own building this season, as well as to back Big10 home teams in general. The Terrapins are also off a loss in a predictable flat spot, and should be looking to make a bounce back statement.

Given that they already beat Minnesota by 35 on the road earlier this month, I’d say they have a good opportunity to make that statement. The Gophers have really played above their heads this season, but where they’ve struggled is against teams who can lock down defensively while also scoring efficiently. That explains Maryland perfectly when they’re at home, and with the metrics predicting an 18 to 20-point margin I’ll lay it with the home team here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit): Austin Peay @ Stetson -10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I don’t think the market is fully appreciating and thus pricing in the personnel issues facing Austin Peay here. The Governors won their personal super bowl on Saturday to snap an 11-game losing streak, and the celebration ended up costing them. There was a brawl at the end of that game against North Florida, and it resulted in suspensions for 3 key APSU rotational players.

Those losses are going to matter today against a Stetson team that can overwhelm opponents in a hurry. The Hatters take the 9th-most threes in the country and make them at the 7th-best percentage. Austin Peay isn’t horrible against the 3-ball, but not great either, and I just don’t see how they’ll be able to score themselves without their key players. Home court also matters quite a bit in the ASUN already, so I see a runaway for the home Hatters.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Binghamton @ Vermont -14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

After starting the season 2-7 and then starting conference play 2-2, there was plenty of worry that the Vermont dynasty in the America East was in decline. Well, a 9-0 straight up and 7-2 ATS run later makes the Catamounts ready to clinch the regular season title with a win tonight, and I think they do it with plenty of flair. This is one of the best home teams in the country, going 7-2 ATS in their own building, winning by 15 points on average, and posting a plus-6.6 average cover margin. They’re also fresh off a scary OT win at awful NJIT, so a more focused effort should be coming here.

But they didn’t need home court to beat up on Binghamton in the first meeting, winning by 25 on the road. Nor does Vermont need any additional advantages in general against them, as they’re 10-0 straight up and 9-1 ATS the past 10 meetings. The Bearcats just don’t have the ability to defend Vermont’s 3-point shooting, or force turnovers against a team that’s top-5 in taking care of the basketball. Vermont will grind them down like they do most opponents, and then suddenly this will be a 20-point game as the Mounts march to another title.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Tulane +15 @ Houston (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

I’ve had this game circled for a while, hoping to get Tulane as a big underdog in this spot. Houston just got the top AP ranking back after taking care of Memphis on Sunday, so it would not shock me to see them take a team they’ve already beaten by 20 points lightly. But Tulane is one of the more underrated programs in the whole country right now, owning a very impressive statistical profile.

The Green Wave are also hot, reeling off 5 straight wins and covers, as coach Ron Hunter has them playing their best basketball. They’re a team very similar to Memphis in that they can really shoot and score at a fast pace, and Memphis hung in with Houston despite missing their top scorer. Houston is a really tough matchup for anyone and are on their way to a 1 seed, but this is a sneaky spot to potentially catch them napping against an underrated opponent.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa/Wisconsin Under 139.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

I’m usually looking to fade Iowa on the road, as their offense simply does not travel and their poor defense gets even worse. But you need an opponent who can reliably score and Wisconsin is not it, so that has me looking to the under instead. The Badgers should never have a total set in this range for any of their games, as they’re 13-3 under this total in Big10 play with two of those overs needing overtime.

One of those came against Iowa in the first meeting where they went to OT tied at 60 apiece. That’s the kind of game I expect again here, with Big10 games at the Kohl Center averaging 119.9 points. Strong defense from the Badgers is not their problem, it’s the ridiculous but consistent 5, 8, even 10 minute scoring droughts. They should slow down the Iowa offense that does not travel well, and keep this game under the highest total they’ve seen this entire season.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1100-953 ATS (+79.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.