Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/21

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Mississippi St/Missouri Under 138.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network

This seems like a good opportunity to fade a Missouri offense that’s seriously fading itself, especially against such a strong defensive team. Missouri was an automatic over play for a long time, but the loss of Isiaih Mosley continues to impact their effectiveness on the offensive end, failing to surpass 60 points in consecutive games. That’s going to be a problem tonight against this Mississippi State team that does nothing but get into low-scoring affairs.

The Bulldogs are setting offensive basketball back decades with their play this season, ranking 321st in scoring, 330th in true shooting percentage, and 331st in pace. It’s so bad they can’t even make free throws (348th in percentage from the charity stripe) but they sure can defend. They’re up to 5th in defensive efficiency and match up well against a Mizzou team that loves to fire three’s, only allowing opponents to shoot 28.7% from deep on the road. If Miss St can continue their defensive strength against a floundering Tigers team, then their own offensive struggles will turn this into an easy under.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) St Louis -0.5 @ Richmond (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is an interesting spot for Richmond, as it’s their first game without head coach Chris Mooney who will be undergoing a heart procedure. So it’s tough to know where the Spiders will be at mentally, or how their preparation level might be different under assistant Peter Thomas. But going up against a St Louis team with loads of experience will be difficult in general, and I think the Billikens have the edge here.

That experience for St Louis is mostly in the backcourt, right where you want it to be this time of year if you’re needing a road win. That’s exactly what SLU needs pretty desperately here to keep pace in the A10 regular season race, especially with a brutal two games to close the regular season. The Bills are so good at getting to and scoring at the rim that I think they’ll be able to continue that against some mediocre interior defense from the Spiders. And with Richmond really struggling to score in the latter half of conference play, St Louis should be able to pull away for the win.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa St/Texas Under 136.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Longhorn Network

Speaking of teams that are setting offensive basketball back a ways, watching my Cyclones on the road has been fairly brutal. Iowa State seems to always forget their offense back in Ames, averaging 0.129 points fewer on a per-possession basis, shooting 5 percentage points worse, and scoring 9.2 fewer PPG as a result. But coupled with a slow pace and tough defense that does travel, the offensive ineptitude should help keep this game under.

Texas has a strong defense themselves and defends well inside the arc, where ISU is forced to operate for the most part. These teams are similar in that regard, and ISU’s ball-denial style should limit the Longhorns inside and create a defensive-oriented contest. I’ve just seen too much of this team’s road struggles to believe we’ll see anything resembling a shootout here, and that should make for another under with a Clones squad that’s one of the better under bets at 17-9 on the season.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Iowa St +7.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

This is called betting with your heart instead of your head, aka some serious homer-ism. I know it’s a revenge spot for Texas and that revenge has been a strong angle across Big12 play so far. But in an under environment, getting more than 2 full possessions of points is a lot. This is also a 10-point swing from the line of the first meeting and an 18.5 point swing from the result, and I’m not sure home court is worth that even with ISU’s road issues. I’m hopeful Caleb Grill is back for ISU tonight to add a little offense and help them keep pace, so I’ll take the points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1098-951 ATS (+79.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.