Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/20

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Coppin St @ Norfolk St -15 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT No TV

The fun thing about Coppin State is they just don’t care. The Eagles will run up and down the floor hoisting three’s and allowing easy buckets all night, and that should create what’s needed for the best team in the conference to blow them out. Norfolk State is again the class of the MEAC, although they started slower than usual and actually sit in second behind Howard. I think that’s holding their price down a little here against such a disinterested opponent.

The Spartans are starting to roll though, fresh off two blowout home wins over teams arguably much better than Coppin. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t kept it within single digits for three straight games, and not once on the road in conference play. Their style makes Norfolk a tough matchup for them, as the Spartans defend the three very well at home and are extremely efficient on offense, so they’ll capitalize on all the extra scoring chances. That’s the formula they used to win by 31 at Coppin last month, and this rematch has the potential to be more of the same.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Kansas @ TCU 1st Half -1 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is a really brutal spot for Kansas to deal with, and I think it hurts them early tonight. The Jayhawks are off a massive comeback win on Saturday, expending a ton of energy in turning a 13-point halftime deficit into a 16-point win over Baylor. That’s on top of College Gameday being in the house for one of the most hyped games of the year.

Now they have a short turnaround with travel to face a squad that’s on a massive upswing. What TCU did to an excellent Oklahoma State defense on Saturday, hanging 100 points in a blowout win, shows what this team is capable of when healthy. Having their big three of Mike Miles, Eddie Lampkin, and Damion Baugh makes this team a national title contender, and they look to be making up for the time lost to their various injuries.

And don’t forget the Horned Frogs already showed that version to Kansas once this year, leading by 10 at the break in Phog Allen. Kansas has also struggled in first halves recently against teams that can do what TCU can offensively, and TCU is also 28th in average first-half margin at home. I see the Horned Frogs carrying their momentum into the early stages tonight against a Kansas team facing a tough scheduling spot.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Kansas/TCU 1st Half Over 71.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

That first meeting where a healthy TCU team jumped all over Kansas was a game plagued by scoring opportunities lost to turnovers, but still saw a 48-38 halftime score. That’s also a game which was played before KU started figuring out its complementary scoring around Jalen Wilson, so I see them with room to improve offensively.

Kansas is 24th and TCU 39th in first half scoring this season, and the Jayhawks average 36.5 on the road while the Frogs average 39.6 at home. I really think the up-tempo style TCU wants to play with Miles at the helm means their scoring will rocket up, and Kansas should be a willing partner tonight to get over this first half total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Hawaii/CS Bakersfield Over 121 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This number is so incredibly low that in the current climate of efficiency-based overs in college basketball, you just have to look that way. The raw numbers are pretty ugly for these teams, with both ranking very low in scoring, shooting percentage, pace, three-pointers, and most everything else you’d want for a high-scoring game.

There are a couple edges to consider though, and I think they’re pretty important. The first is that Hawaii is a much different team on the mainland, with the elite defense not traveling like it should. Their road games in Big West play are averaging 129.3 points in regulation, and are 6-1 over this total as a result. But even the first meeting with Bakersfield on the island got to 141 points behind strong two-point shooting and the other key factor which is free throws.

Both teams are excellent at free throw shooting, and both happen to foul a lot, especially Bakersfield who commits the 47th-most fouls in the country and 17th-most at home. Those easy points always help to get over low totals like this, and I think we see another for two teams that are a combined 22-8 over this number in conference play.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1098-947 ATS (+82.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.