Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/19

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Ohio St/Purdue Over 139 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

This total is relatively fair from the standpoint of the previous meeting landing right on 140 points. But a lot has changed since that game in early January, particularly for this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes were still ranked at that point, but the loss sparked this 1-12 run they’re on and it’s fairly obvious the team is disinterested in the rest of the season. That has shown up significantly on the defensive end, highlighted by allowing 92 to another elite efficiency offense at Iowa on Thursday.

Enter angry Purdue, a team that’s lost 3 of 4, are in need of a bounce back, and have their own highly efficient offense. The Boilermakers are 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency by KenPom, and score 1.161 points per possession at home. The concern is their slow pace, but when this team wants to put up big numbers offensively, they do it as easily as anyone. I think Purdue will want to show the committee that they belong on the 1-seed line, and running up the score will carry this over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Tulsa @ Temple -14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Go grab 4 of your friends – heck, maybe just 3 friends – and you might stand a chance against this Tulsa team. The Golden Hurricane have completely given up on the season and aren’t the least bit competitive anymore. They’ve dropped 7 straight games by double digits, with the last 3 by a 36.3 point average. They’re also losing AAC road games by an average of 23.3 points, plus have a 1-9 ATS record on the road overall with the country’s 2nd-worst ATS margin of minus-8.5 points.

So every team can, and is, handing out beatings to this pitiful Tulsa squad, and it should happen again here. Temple is in need of a bounce back in this game, and Tulsa offers the best get-right opportunity they’ll see on the season. The Owls should also be motivated here after they blew a 20-point lead and narrowly escaped in the first meeting. But they have what it takes to build that kind of big lead, so I think they’ll do it again but hold onto it today.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Memphis/Houston Over 141.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN

The only way Memphis is competitive in this game is if they can dictate their up-tempo and full-court style. That’s extremely difficult against a Houston team that doesn’t turn the ball over, although they do average significantly more turnovers on their home floor.

Memphis will need to rely on those live-ball turnovers and points in transition in order to score against this excellent Houston defense, especially with Kendric Davis possibly missing the game. As a top-20 team in points, shooting, and pace, Memphis has what it takes to get over this total in general, and their past 8 games have gone 7-1 over this number.

The question is how much Houston scores while also flexing their elite defensive muscle. Where this has a chance to get out of hand is if that up-tempo style also gives Houston plenty of points in transition, as Memphis does not take care of the ball well. But something also tells me Houston will continue its high-scoring ways of recent weeks, averaging 78 points the past 7 games, which should be enough to get this over the total.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Belmont @ Drake -7 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on CBSSN

I miss the days of Drake being an automatic cover team, but this year’s version is definitely rounding into form. Their last 3 games have seen the Bulldogs get convincing wins and covers against 3 other teams in the race for the Missouri Valley regular season title.

They also handed this Belmont team their most lopsided loss of the season 3 weeks ago, and they did it by taking away what the Bruins do best. Belmont loves to shoot from deep, ranking 13th nationally in 3-point attempts and 3rd in percentage from long range. But Drake absolutely shut them down from beyond the arc in that first meeting, holding the Bruins to their coldest shooting night of the season.

They’ll have to focus on it again here because Belmont has been scorching their past two games, albeit against a couple terrible teams. I like Drake to win this game, but the key to covering 3 possessions is limiting three’s and making late free throws. With the Bulldogs already having done the former and ranking 11th nationally in the latter, they have what it takes to get a 4th-straight cover.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Iowa @ Northwestern +1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on BTN

Ok, I accept it, Northwestern is actually legit this year. The late-season swoon after a strong December that’s almost a yearly tradition for the Wildcats hasn’t arrived, replaced instead by some huge upset wins. Those have Northwestern alone in 2nd place in the Big10, and they can solidify that standing today. If they can control game flow like they’ve been able to do on their home floor all season, then they have an excellent chance against this inconsistent Iowa squad.

That inconsistency for the Hawkeyes is solely based on their elite offense not wanting to leave the state of Iowa. They might be a top-10 offense by just about any metric, but on the road they’re scoring 19.3 PPG less, 0.215 less per-possession, and shooting 8.8 percentage points worse. But their poor defense goes everywhere with them, and that will allow Northwestern to score while grinding this game down to a style that’s extremely frustrating for the up-tempo Hawkeyes. That should leave the door open for the surprising Purple Cats to grab another big win here, so I’m backing the home team.

Degenerates

NBA All-Star Game Over 325.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I really only have one thing to say about betting the NBA All-Star game, which in and of itself is pretty degenerate behavior. That is, if you’re going to do it, and you don’t bet the over, you should have your gamblers card revoked. I know the format is weird now with their target score in the 4th quarter, but it’s still 11-6 to the over the past 17 seasons. The scoring potential is basically unlimited, so don’t sweat an under ticket here if you’re going to get involved.

Tiny Nick is 1095-945 ATS (+81.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.