Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/19

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Virginia +3.5 @ Virginia Tech (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

The KenPom number on this game is 3 points, with other sites having similarly short numbers in favor of the Hokies here. So the line has moved through to a point where I’m willing to take the points, even with this inept Virginia offense. Tech is just not in great form right now, having lost 4 of 5 including to some of the lesser teams of a down ACC. While betting on Virginia can be maddening if you need them to put up points, their defense travels and should keep them in this rivalry game to the end.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa State +9.5 @ Houston (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

I’m an unrepentant homer, so when my Cyclones are catching a big number I’m taking the points. Going into the Fertitta Center is scary, as Texas found out on Saturday, but Iowa State still doesn’t get the respect they deserve. This is a battle of two immovable objects as the nation’s best and third-best teams in defensive efficiency square off. In a game like that there’s natural value on a sizable underdog, especially one that’s already beaten Houston this season. The Cougars might get their revenge, but I don’t believe it will be by a big number.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Iowa State Team Total Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Basically I just want to bet the over in this game. I know ISU only put up 57 against Houston when they had Hilton Magic on their side, but I think the offense has improved since then. Houston has allowed teams to go over this total in 6 of the past 7 games, and if the Clones are going to compete then they’re likely to get over this number.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Iowa State/Houston Over 127.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Again, just want to bet the over here, and if ISU gets over their team total then the game should go over. Might be the squarest move in the book to root for points in a game you’re excited to watch, but I don’t care. KenPom has this at 129 points so that’s all the intelligent support I can give to this pick.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) NC Central/Norfolk State Over 135.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

These offenses kind of stink, I’m not going to sugarcoat that. They really stunk when they first met in early January, only managing 118 points. The Spartans and Eagles combined to shoot just 16.2% from deep in that game, which even for these teams has to see some positive regression. The key for me is that most metrics sites are projecting several points fewer than this, yet the total is on the rise. I’ll take a shot that these often ugly offenses can put together enough scoring to get over this low total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2056-1861 ATS (+98.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.