Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/18

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Baylor/Kansas Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is easily the best game of the week, and don’t look now but here come both squads down the stretch of the season. Baylor is finally rounding into form after an awful start to Big12 play, and a lot has to do with the offense. The Bears have averaged 80.5 PPG in this current four game winning streak while lighting it up from deep. They’re uniquely constructed with so many lethal outside shooters that even a strong Kansas defense will have trouble guarding them.

But the Jayhawks have perhaps figured it out even more offensively, finally finding complementary scoring to Jalen Wilson. This might be the team with the most underrated talent in the whole country, and watching them make up for lost time has been scary, as they’ve hung 75 or more in 5 of the past 6 games. KU is also out for revenge after losing in Waco last month, and they’ll have no reservations about running it up if they can. This should be a perimeter-oriented game, which favors more scoring, and I think has all the ingredients needed for an over.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Howard/Coppin St Over 157.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT No TV

It’s hard to find much defense in the MEAC, and I don’t think you’ll find any in this one. Particularly not from Coppin State’s side, as the Eagles check in at 354th in defensive efficiency this season. They’ve also allowed 87.6 PPG in their past 7 games, including 90 to Howard just last month. But with Sam Sessoms they can score on anyone, especially if their volume 3-point shooting is clicking.

Coppin should be able to get those shots to drop against a Howard team that’s 291st in 3-point percentage defense, and allows a ton of attempts in road games. But they’ll shoot the lights out themselves against this horrific and disinterested defense. Both teams play at a frenetic tempo, especially Coppin who’s 9th in pace. So with little to no defense, a free-flowing style and three’s going down, this game should have a great chance to go over the high number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington -8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Northern Colorado is too talented to be this bad, but today is also a terrible matchup for them. It’s all on account of zero effort on defense from the Bears, who are ranked 325th in defensive efficiency. While they’ve played better lately against some Big Sky bottom-feeders, Eastern Washington has exactly what’s needed to blow them out.

The Eagles are one of the top shooting teams in the whole country, ranked 7th in true shooting percentage. They’re also shooting over 62% from inside the arc both at home and in conference play overall, which is absolutely insane. NoCo is actually decent at guarding the 3-point line but truly terrible at defending inside, ranked 325th in 2-point percentage defense. If Eastern is smart and exploits that massive advantage, this should turn into another runaway for a team winning its conference home games by 11 points on average.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duke @ Syracuse +1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN

Death, taxes, and Syracuse playing well down the stretch to create buzz about them being on the bubble. Seems like it happens every year, and three straight somewhat impressive wins from the Orange have them in a place where today’s game will matter for them. While a win over Duke isn’t the resume-builder it once was, I still think they can pull this mild upset.

The Blue Devils without Coach K really aren’t as scary as they used to be, but they’re still priced according to name-brand value. Putting them on the road though has been extremely rough, as Duke is now 2-10 ATS away from Cameron Indoor. Their only two conference road wins have been against ACC cellar-dwellers, and a hungry Cuse squad that’s defended home court well is a much different task. I just don’t think Duke has the perimeter shooting needed against the Orange zone, and I’ll take Jim Boeheim over Jon Scheyer today.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Nevada @ Utah St -4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CBSSN

It’s do-or-die time for a Utah State team desperate for quality wins, of which they have very few. This is a great opportunity in a revenge spot against a Nevada team that I actually think is fantastic. But they haven’t been that fantastic on the road, where their offense takes a big hit and scores 0.144 points fewer on a per-possession basis.

The Wolfpack is probably due for some regression here compared to the first meeting, where they shot a ridiculous 47.1% from beyond the arc. If they aren’t able to score like they’re used to, Utah State can pull away in a hurry as the second-best 3-point shooting team in the country. Nevada is much more secure in their status for March, so a desperate Aggies team at home should be able to get this done.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1092-943 ATS (+82.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.