Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/17

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Dayton @ Loyola-Chicago +7 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I still believe this Dayton team is wildly inconsistent and therefore not trustworthy. That makes me wiling to fade them here in a road game that’s likely tougher than they expect. The Flyers have had a week off since their big week that saw them take down the other two A-10 contenders. That makes me concerned that they’ll take this Loyola team lightly as the Ramblers are stuck at the bottom of the conference standings.

But the Fighting Sister Jean’s have been far more competitive recently as their underrated talent figures things out a little too late. They’re 5-2 ATS their past 7 games, including having this Flyers team on the ropes in Dayton a couple weeks ago. Being at home will be a boost for them and a big negative factor for Dayton, who is 3-5 ATS on the road with an ATS margin that’s 26th-worst in the country. This should be a slower-paced game that benefits the underdog, and I just don’t see Dayton pulling away by more than two possessions.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Detroit/Oakland Over 152.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

These two rivals are capable of putting up some massive totals in any game, and especially when they get together. But we’re getting a discount on this number because of the previous meeting last month where they combined for 143 points on a 154.5 total.

A deeper dive into the box score says that game had every opportunity to go over, with incredibly high possessions but just an off shooting night for both teams. That was especially the case from long range, and the expected positive regression there is what should make the difference tonight. It should be raining three’s in this game, especially from Detroit and the nation’s leading scorer Antoine Davis, who will look to atone for his worst game of the season in that previous meeting.

Oakland at home allows opponents to shoot 40.5% from deep, 6th-worst in the country, while Detroit has the nation’s 339th three-point percentage defense. These teams are also 312th and 345th in adjusted defensive efficiency, so some minor improvement in shooting will be the boost needed to get over this total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Mexico @ San Jose St -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on CBSSN

Go against San Jose State coach Tim Miles at your own risk, but I’m buying in on this Spartans team that he has trending upward. I think they’re in a great spot here to further the crash-and-burn that New Mexico is currently going through, and the nearly pick-em price is definitely attractive.

Things are only getting worse for the Lobos, whose 14-0 start to the season is a distant memory after a 1-6 run both ATS and straight up. With point guard Jaelen House iffy tonight with his hamstring injury, I see them struggling against an SJSU team that plays excellent interior defense. That’s a big key as the Lobos are extremely reliant on 2-point shooting, and are a team that makes incredibly poor passes.

The Spartans have defended home court well this season going 10-2 straight up, and are also 6-1 ATS when a home favorite. But current form and coaching are the biggest factors in my mind, and the advantage in both are clearly with SJSU so that’s where my money is going.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Abilene Christian/Grand Canyon Over 144.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on ESPNU

Both odds makers and the betting market are finally catching on to this Grand Canyon team’s defensive struggles since the loss of Jovan Blacksher, making this the second-highest total they’ve faced on the season. But you simply cannot go under when this team takes the floor right now, especially against a team with a functional offense.

Another up-tempo squad with strong shooting visits them here, as Abilene has the ability to score on anyone. The Wildcats have been playing with their hair on fire in WAC play, as their conference games are averaging 149 points. It’s primarily because Abilene is just 257th in defensive efficiency, and they’re much worse on the road.

Grand Canyon should be able to score easily tonight as they did in the first meeting, especially if they knock down their three’s against a poor 3-point percentage defense. But the bottom line is the Lopes have the 3rd-best over record in the country, are 12-2 to the over at home, and continued poor defense should create another tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1090-941 ATS (+81.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.