Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/16

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Washington Wizards/Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 57 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I couldn’t believe this total when I saw it, expecting one north of 60 points with the high game total and how both teams have been playing lately. The Wizards and the Wolves have been starting fast in recent games, and I think they put their early scoring powers together for a big first quarter here.

Washington’s scoring has really been turned up lately and it starts early, with their past 8 games averaging 63.4 points in the first quarter. They’re 5th in first-quarter scoring this season, one spot behind the Wolves. And Minnesota has really turned it on offensively since the embarrassment in Denver last week, scoring 33, 32, and 33 points in the first quarter since.

As always, it’s good to be mindful of Rudy Gobert’s status when betting a Wolves total in any way, but his presence hasn’t hampered them the past two games. He didn’t slow them down in the first meeting when these teams combined for 71 in the first quarter, and I think both teams start hot again here.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Purdue Team Total Under 66.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on BTN

I’ve been skeptical of this Purdue team for a long time now, and this is my way of fading them in a toss-up game. My gut says Maryland wins this game since they’ve been so strong at home, but I’m not willing to pull the trigger on that. The Terrapins know how to slow this team down though, and their excellent defense at home will be a big deciding factor tonight.

Maryland held the Boilermakers to just 58 points in a losing effort at Purdue last month. That’s tied for the lowest point total of the season for a Boilers team that’s one of the most efficient offenses in the country on its home floor. The pace was incredibly slow, as to be expected for two teams that are bottom-40 nationally in tempo, and that won’t change here.

But the biggest key was Maryland’s experienced and athletic backcourt putting pressure on Purdue’s freshman guard duo that I don’t trust as we approach March. That will get dialed to the max in an incredibly hostile environment tonight, and I see it slowing down Purdue’s offense enough to stay under this isolated total.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) St Mary’s Team Total Over 75.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on WCC Network

Just about any team can take advantage of the layup line that is the San Diego defense, and I think St Mary’s won’t hesitate to put a big number on them tonight. The Gaels will always be in search of style points as they try to convince the committee that the WCC isn’t just about Gonzaga. Plus, the tiebreaker in the WCC is best NET rating, so blowouts and running up the score matter. We saw it in a focused effort at Portland on Saturday where they dropped 81 points after a letdown spot at Loyola two days earlier.

I think that loss woke St Mary’s up, and the result should be strong performances down the stretch. It’s not like they’re all about defense either, as the Gaels are 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. They should be fully capable of torching the Toreros again after putting up 85 in the first meeting. Conference opponents are 11-2 over this total against San Diego, who’s allowing 83.8 PPG in WCC play. St Mary’s might flex the defense here as well, but points are always easy against the Toreros and tonight should be no different.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Iowa Team Total Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

The total has actually come down in this game, likely on account of Ohio State’s horrific play lately, but that’s only lowered this isolated total as a result. And the last time the Buckeyes looked functional offensively was nearly 4 weeks ago when they put 93 points on Iowa back in Columbus. There’s no question the Hawkeyes will be out for revenge in this one, and being at home will be the ultimate boost to their offense.

The home and road splits for this Iowa offense are astounding, as the Hawkeyes average 69.9 PPG on the road but 89.0 at home. They also score 0.204 points more on a per-possession basis at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, where they’re 6-1 over this team total in conference play. This is a top-5 offense overall by KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metrics, as well as top-3 in scoring metrics at home. With revenge on their mind and ESPN in the house, I expect the Hawkeyes to push the pace and show no mercy tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1088-940 ATS (+81.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.