Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/16

Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Harvard @ Cornell -8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This is a great spot for Cornell to put all their attention into smashing Harvard tonight. The Big Red has lowly Dartmouth on deck tomorrow, a game they could probably win with their bench, so I expect them to take tonight’s game pretty seriously.

They’d be smashing Harvard again, as this was a 13-point Cornell win last weekend in Cambridge. Harvard just can’t keep up with Cornell’s pace and the country’s best two-point shooting offense which was obvious in that meeting. Every metrics site I’ve seen has this as a double-digit win for Cornell, so lay the number with them in this spot.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Dartmouth Team Total Under 63.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I don’t quite understand why the full-game total in this one is so high, and ticking upwards, but it creates another great spot to fade one of the country’s worst offenses. Dartmouth just continues to fall short of their team totals as the Big Green have only gotten out of the 50’s once in Ivy League play.

Columbia just held them to 56 points last weekend when Dartmouth was at home, so this road spot should be even tougher for the country’s 7th-worst offense by adjusted efficiency. Dartmouth is very reliant on getting their limited points from beyond the arc, and Columbia is a very strong perimeter defense so expect the output to be hilariously low once again for the Big Green tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Villanova First Half Team Total Over 35.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Everyone in the Big East eats against Georgetown, especially early. Well, except DePaul, but we’ll leave that laughingstock of a program out of this exercise. In the other 12 conference games for the Hoyas, their opponents are 11-1 over this first half team total with 40.6 points on average. I do have concerns about this Villanova offense, particularly their pace and reliance on the three, but Georgetown isn’t even trying on defense right now. Nova has a very shaky tournament resume right now, so they would be wise to smash an awful opponent like this and that should start early tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Mexico @ San Diego St -6 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on FS1

Everyone loves New Mexico right now, as the Lobos have been an ATS darling in conference play so far. That includes an 18-point thrashing of this San Diego State team at The Pit last month, and a big win at Nevada earlier this week. So why is the number moving so steadily towards the Aztecs tonight despite KenPom and other metrics sites projecting this as a 5-point or less margin?

Well, San Diego State has been a wagon themselves at home, going 5-1 ATS at Viejas Arena with the one non-cover being a 16-point win against Wyoming when laying 17 points. The Aztecs have shown big home/road splits in how they perform against the quality MWC teams, and that should come into play again tonight. I trust Brian Dutcher to scheme a defense that can frustrate New Mexico and take away their heavy reliance on two-point shooting, and pull away for a revenge win here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2050-1853 ATS (+100.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.