Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/15

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/Denver Nuggets 1st Half Over 119 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude

The new-look Dallas Mavericks with Kyrie Irving in the fold do seem to be playing a different brand of basketball. Their scoring is up a few points over the season average, as is their points allowed number, and I think that factors in here. They’re up against a Denver team that is one of the most dangerous offenses on its own floor, especially in the first half. The Nuggets are second in first-half scoring, and their past 4 home games have seen them average 69.0 points before halftime.

For as good as Dallas has been defensively this season their first half defense isn’t that great, and they allow 59.9 points in road games. Just look to the first three meetings between these teams to see the important trend here, as they’ve combined to score 55.4% of total points before halftime, with 120.3 on average. I think Kyrie’s presence adds an elite level of scoring ability to help continue those trends in this one. With both teams headed to the All-Star break after tonight I don’t see defense being a big priority, and that should create another high-flying first half.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Alabama/Tennessee Under 147.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I really don’t understand why this total has risen several points from the open, because I’m seeing a hard-fought defensive battle here. Metrics models are also projecting this game with fewer points than even that opening total, and I’m in agreement.

Tennessee is obviously known for its defense, ranked tops in the country for just about every possible defensive metric. But Alabama is misunderstood as just an offensive juggernaut, with their defense ranked 5th in adjusted efficiency and 11th in total rating.

How I think this game turns into an under is based on Alabama’s style, which creates high volatility. The Tide want to run and shoot threes, as many as some NBA teams in fact, and if those shots aren’t dropping it can get ugly. Tennessee slows the pace to a crawl at home, and among their top defensive marks is the nation’s best three-point percentage defense that allows just 22.7% at home.

The Vols go through incredible shooting droughts as well, so they’ll have to dictate a tempo here that prevents the game from getting away from them. If they can control that and the three-point line, we’ll see a much lower-scoring game than expected.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Virginia/Louisville 1st Half Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

This number is discounted because of a low full-game total based on Virginia’s elite defense. And yes, that low total is justifiable given Virginia’s well-known defensive prowess and Louisville’s general awfulness. But that’s not how things have been playing out for either team in the first half, and I think it creates plenty of value here on this isolated number.

ACC play has seen both of these teams score more in first halves than they did early in the season. Especially Louisville, who is now 13-1 over this first half total in conference play with those halves averaging 67.9 points. And while Virginia’s first halves in ACC play only average 60.2 points, it’s the road that makes the difference as they’re 5-2 over this number with 63.4 points on average. I expect Virginia to have another of its more up-tempo first halves, and that makes this number a little too low.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Furman Team Total Over 83.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Once again the Southern Conference has some really dangerous teams, and this Furman squad might be the best among them. Certainly on offense, where the Paladins are 5th in points per possession, 10th in overall scoring, 13th in shooting percentage, and 33rd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency which is 4th-highest for all non-power conference teams.

They’re up against a Citadel team that doesn’t play the same insane games of previous years, but is still awful on defense. The Bulldogs are 325th in defensive efficiency and are actually worse on defense at home. Furman already dropped 97 on this team earlier in the season for their best scoring output against any D1 opponent on the year. The Paladins have also gone over 90 points in 4 of the past 7 games, so against this porous defense I see them lighting it up again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Tarleton @ Stephen F Austin -6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN+

This line struck me as suspiciously short given Stephen F Austin’s home court advantage and matchup strengths. Ultimately I’m going to trust the Lumberjacks to continue impressing, because I don’t trust Tarleton to be able to execute their style here. The Texans want to make every game as ugly as possible due to their limitations on offense, and it’s worked somewhat for them against lower-tier opponents. But they’ve struggled on the road against the better WAC teams, and SFA is definitely among that group.

The Lumberjacks should be able to shoot the lights out from deep in this game, as they’re the country’s 6th-best team in three-point percentage. It’s a very favorable matchup against a Tarleton defense that’s 295th in three-point percentage allowed, and is letting teams shoot 38.3% from deep on the road. SFA also simply gets it done against the number, 8-2 ATS their past 10 overall and 5-0 ATS at home in WAC play. They’re fresh off a tough road trip and looking to get back on track, so I see this as a potential runaway for the home squad.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Boise St -3.5 @ Colorado St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on FS1

This seemed like another suspiciously short spread for a Boise State team that can be scary good when they want to be. The metrics absolutely love the Broncos, with them all the way up to 28th in KenPom behind the 10th-best adjusted defensive efficiency. They’ll need to lean on that defense against a Colorado State team that can really shoot it, but has fallen on hard times due to injuries.

The Rams just haven’t been competitive against the better Mountain West teams as a result. They’re 0-6 both straight up and ATS against the teams that make up the top 6 in the conference standings. CSU also has a minus-12.3 average margin in those games with a minus-9.3 ATS margin, so it really hasn’t been close. Boise beat a healthier version of this Rams team by 21 in the first meeting, and they’ve rolled over the bottom-tier MWC teams on the road, so I see that continuing tonight.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball TCU/Iowa St 1st Half Over 63 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU

It’s really tough to keep backing my Cyclones after the offense fell on its face Saturday night. But after every disappointment this season, Iowa State has bounced back with a strong performance in the next game, particularly offensively. They’re going to need it tonight against a TCU team that can score with the best of them, when healthy. And that’s what I expect the Horned Frogs to be tonight as Mike Miles and Eddie Lampkin appear set to return from scary injuries.

It’s objectively good to see those two healthy, and should be scary for the rest of the country. Without Miles on the floor this offense has struggled, but was tearing good Big12 defenses to shreds before his injury. Their defense hasn’t been great lately either though, and on the road in conference play they’re 5-0-1 over this number in first halves. With expected positive regression from ISU’s offense combined with sneakily vulnerable defenses, I see this one getting out to a hot start.

Tiny Nick is 1087-936 ATS (+83.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.