Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/15

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 111.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I haven’t liked too many numbers for the Wolves recently, but I finally like this one as we head into the All-Star break. If Anthony Edwards plays that is, so keep an eye on his status, but he had essentially the same injury designation when he dropped 41 on Tuesday night. The Wolves have blown past this number in both meetings with Portland and their 22nd-rated defense, so at full strength I see them doing it again.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Timberwolves/Trail Blazers Over 215 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

The Blazers are a very strange team, as they could go for 80 or 110 on any given night. But the return of Anfernee Simons in Tuesday’s meeting dramatically raised their scoring floor, and was a big help to getting that game over the total. In games like this I’m always expecting players to be looking ahead to vacation and putting less effort into defense, so I like this one to get over the low total as well.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors -1.5 @ Utah Jazz (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on NBCS-BA

The Utah hot streak and dominance as a home underdog is finally running into mean reversion. It was unsustainable and predictable given their struggles defensively, which have really become an issue in the past 4 games where the Jazz are allowing 128.3 PPG. One of those game was against this Warriors team and it was nowhere close as Golden State ran away with a game lined at pick-em.

I don’t see this as a big enough adjustment to that result and the obviously opposite trajectories these teams are on. Utah comes in on a 4-9 straight up and 5-8 ATS run, while Golden State seems to finally have figured some things out. The Warriors should be salty after choking away a 15-point lead against the Clippers last night, and I think they score at will against this struggling Jazz defense.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Minnesota/Purdue First Half Over 69.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on BTN

I think the Gophers are playing better basketball than anyone is giving them credit for, and this offense is actually sneaky-good. The defense has become a problem though, and I think that gets exposed in a big way tonight by a Purdue team coming off a sluggish offensive performance last time out.

The Boilermakers should light it up from deep in this game, as positive regression will hit their three-point shooting for the team that's 3rd nationally in three-point percentage at home. Minnesota struggles to guard the perimeter at 194th in opponent three-point percentage, so look for Purdue to splash plenty of three's to complement Zach Edey dominating down low.

But the Gophers should also put up points early today as they're pretty reliant on outside shooting, and won't have much choice with Edey patrolling the paint. Minnesota's six conference road games have averaged 74.3 points in the first half and are 5-1 over this total. Now they face a Purdue team that's fourth in first-half scoring and expecting positive regression on offense, so look for a fast start in this game.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Northwestern/Rutgers Under 130.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on BTN

This is far too high of a total for this new-look Northwestern team after losing Ty Berry for the season. The Wildcats are 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency this season thanks to the 6th-best percentage from long range, but that has been extremely dependent on Berry’s shooting and his impact on the team as a whole. Taking what’s left of this offense on the road to Rutgers is a recipe for offensive futility.

Rutgers might be in a down year but they still defend with the best of them, ranked 2nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. But the Scarlet Knights are also as offensively challenged as it gets, ranked 356th in effective field goal percentage. Add in Northwestern’s strong defense and glacial pace of 328th in adjusted tempo, and this one could get gross. I watched Northwestern look rough offensively against a bad Penn State defense on Sunday, so take advantage of this number that isn’t fully adjusted to Berry’s absence.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Stanford/Washington Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I expected to see this total in the low 160s and think this is great value tonight. These teams combined for 170 points in the first meeting, and have only gotten into higher-scoring games since. Especially Washington whose 5 games since have averaged 162.8 points, and the Huskies tend to get into track meets in their home games.

Stanford will have no problem with an up-tempo style, and that gives their seriously underrated offense more opportunity tonight. The Cardinal are 18th in effective field goal percentage and 7th in three-point percentage, so the fast pace out of Washington should really boost overall scoring. The Huskies have real trouble with efficient offenses, allowing 85-plus in 4 of their past 6 games, so look for easy points all night from both teams.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Colorado @ UCLA +1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

This UCLA team was left for dead when they hit rock bottom in Utah a month ago, especially by the betting market. But a run of 7-1 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS has revived this team, yet the market still doesn’t trust them. I’ll admit it’s tough to trust a team that still can’t shoot, but Mick Cronin can coach, this team can defend, and I think this is a number with too much disrespect built into it.

With Colorado having plenty of issues in recent weeks against better competition, and struggling away from home in PAC12 play, I don’t know that they should be favored on the road at all. The Buffaloes are extremely reliant on their offense carrying them, so against an elite defensive team in the Bruins, expect UCLA to control this game and continue their resurgence.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) North Dakota/Denver Over 157 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

This is another game I expected to see in the 160s, and I think it turns into another track meet. This matchup already produced 170 points in the first meeting, and now shifts venues to Denver where the Pioneers love to run and wear opponents out in the altitude. Denver is an excellent shooting team, particularly from deep, and should have a lot of success against a North Dakota squad that is 307th in defending the three.

But Denver’s defense is one of the worst in the country, ranked 346th in adjusted efficiency, and the Fighting Hawks know how to score at will against them. Summit League play has been pretty wild for the Pioneers as a result, averaging 162.2 PPG in regulation and going 9-2 over this total. With bad defenses on both sides and Denver setting the tempo, this should be another one that sails over.

NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Pacific +16.5 @ Santa Clara (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

There are ugly dogs, then there are mangey dogs full of fleas, then there’s Pacific catching points. While it’s gross, I do think things have gone a little too far with Pacific’s power rating and smart money seems to agree. While KenPom has this as a 20-point margin, the number is creeping towards the Tigers here who have been playing better the past couple weeks.

Despite being 0-11 in conference play, Pacific has given a couple of the better WCC teams a fight lately, and Santa Clara is a team headed in the opposite direction. The Broncos have three straight losses, including a couple deflating close calls, so they might be looking to take out frustrations here. But don’t discount Pacific’s ability to make the game ugly and hang around as a result, so I’m rolling with the sharps in this one.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2043-1851 ATS (+96.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.